Economy

Fed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase34%
$38.9M Vol.monthly

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Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase80%
No change19%

$3.4M Vol.monthly

Fed Decision in January?

No change56%
25 bps increase43%

$479.8K Vol.monthly

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA74%
Apple26%

$8.3M Vol.monthly

$54.1M Vol.

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA83%
Apple15%

$326.4K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike58%
Hike–Hike–Hike19%

$324.6K Vol.daily

Core CPI MoM - September 2026

<1%chance

$2.7K Vol.10 hours left

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change91%
25 bps increase11%

$577.5K Vol.annual

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change96%
25 bps increase4%

$213.4K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change74%
25 bps increase27%

$121.2K Vol.annual

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause45%
Pause-Hike-Hike14%

$41.5K Vol.daily

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting53%
June 2027 Meeting36%

$3.8M Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%66%
5.5%40%

$981.0K Vol.weekly

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

25 bps decrease87%
No Change9%

$59.3K Vol.annual

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%67%
5.80%54%

$218.7K Vol.

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change77%
25 bps increase21%

$178.6K Vol.annual

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

72%chance

$39.3K Vol.12 days left

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

<$397K36%
$397K - $407K26%

$20.5K Vol.monthly

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.0% to 0.2%26%
-0.3% to -0.1%24%

$36.6K Vol.annual

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+54%
2.7-2.8M19%

$46.1K Vol.monthly

Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?

2.5-3.0%38%
3.0-3.5%30%

$51.4K Vol.annual

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5%20%
Above 5%9%

$1.5M Vol.

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change89%
Decrease12%

$78.5K Vol.annual

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%90%
5.25%54%

$104.3K Vol.

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.50%16%
Below 4.45%8%

$87.2K Vol.

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M27%
3.0 - 3.5M24%

$116.6K Vol.monthly

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%49%
5.50-5.99%21%

$162.8K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.32%65%
5.35%54%

$27.6K Vol.weekly

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$38.1K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.15%44%
Below 5.18%41%

$15.0K Vol.weekly

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change78%
25 bps increase22%

$37.1K Vol.

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.00%67%
4.90%65%

$17.8K Vol.

PPI YoY - September 2026

5.9%+28%
5.8%17%

$30.1K Vol.monthly

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Alphabet60%
Microsoft30%

$71.4K Vol.monthly

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M66%
270M6%

$32.7K Vol.monthly

Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026

0.8-1.1%51%
1.2-1.5%37%

$70.1K Vol.annual

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%86%
↑ 4.5%26%

$1.9M Vol.

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%51%
1.1 – 1.5%27%

$113.6K Vol.

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 5.20%31%
Below 5.15%26%

$70.4K Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+91%
31M+85%

$34.9K Vol.monthly

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%71%
4.6-4.9%15%

$68.1K Vol.monthly

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

No change82%
25 bps decrease12%

$54.9K Vol.annual

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.73%59%
Below 4.60%37%

$7.3K Vol.

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.08%73%
5.11%72%

$16.6K Vol.

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

$407K - $411K28%
$403K - $407K18%

$18.3K Vol.monthly

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase92%
No change10%

$306.4K Vol.annual

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

3.5–3.9%60%
3.0–3.4%22%

$139.4K Vol.monthly

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

4.92%74%
4.86%71%

$11.7K Vol.

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.70%68%
Below 4.60%52%

$13.6K Vol.

What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?

$497K - $510K32%
$445K - $458K26%

$11.1K Vol.monthly

US economic state at the end of 2026?

$103.5K Vol.

Central Bank of Colombia decision in October

No change68%
25 bps increase21%

$36.9K Vol.annual

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple91%
NVIDIA8%

$29.4K Vol.monthly

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.95%56%
Below 4.92%50%

$11.3K Vol.

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

3.0-3.4%39%
3.5-3.9%26%

$63.0K Vol.monthly

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$900B-$1.00T48%
$1.00-$1.10T31%

$11.8K Vol.monthly

What will be in the UK Budget?

CGT increase44%
Fuel duty increase28%

$12.0K Vol.

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change55%
25 bps increase43%

$41.3K Vol.annual

India Annual Inflation 2026

4.50%+94%
0.75% to 1.49%1%

$102.7K Vol.

Core PCE MoM - September 2026

0.3%44%
0.2%36%

$12.9K Vol.monthly

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.4–0.5%46%
0.6–0.7%24%

$35.5K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?

<$503K47%
$521K+16%

$18.4K Vol.monthly

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

53%chance

$18.1K Vol.2 months left

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4%85%
2.5-2.9%9%

$76.2K Vol.

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Core PCE YoY - September 2026

3.1%30%
3.0%28%

$14.9K Vol.monthly

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9%82%
2.0-2.4%18%

$58.0K Vol.

Bank of Russia decision in December?

No change62%
25 bps decrease35%

$11.1K Vol.annual

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines50%
Anduril18%

$215.1K Vol.

How many jobs added in October?

100k+31%
75k to 100k18%

$21.7K Vol.monthly

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.70%41%
5.73%27%

$19.8K Vol.

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

53.0 to 53.922%
54.0 to 54.921%

$11.7K Vol.monthly

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

1.0-2.0%49%
0-1.0%46%

$57.8K Vol.monthly

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

3%chance

$11.9K Vol.2 months left

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

5.0%5%
5.5%2%

$563.7K Vol.

Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?

770M>99%
780M98%

$3.4K Vol.

What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.115M24%
$1.115M - $1.126M20%

$17.3K Vol.monthly

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

Santander4%
RBC3%

$82.6K Vol.monthly

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

4%chance

$33.8K Vol.3 months left

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

25 bps increase76%
No change18%

$33.3K Vol.annual

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

November 3076%
October 3167%

$6.0K Vol.

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change93%
Decrease7%

$60.9K Vol.annual

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.0 to 0.1%35%
0.2 to 0.3%28%

$28.2K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in Miami be on December 31?

$809K - $830K26%
$788K - $809K20%

$11.3K Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase52%
No change44%

$93.8K Vol.annual

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3114%
November 308%

$10.3K Vol.

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

0.8%–1.6%25%
0.0%–0.8%24%

$43.2K Vol.annual

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

74%chance

$2.3K Vol.8 months left

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

42%chance

$2.2K Vol.2 months left

US recession by end of 2026?

8%chance

$2.3M Vol.3 months left

Meta headcount above __ in Q3?

6600091%
6800063%

$167.6 Vol.

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

25 bps decrease56%
50+ bps decrease26%

$24.2K Vol.annual

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.55%65%
Below 5.52%47%

$13.8K Vol.

Central Bank of Chile decision in October

No change92%
25 bps increase5%

$10.4K Vol.monthly

JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026

7.4M+36%
<6.8M26%

$14.0K Vol.monthly

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

2.7% to 2.9%46%
3.0%+37%

$55.5K Vol.

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3117%
November 306%

$23.7K Vol.

ISM Services PMI - October 2026

54.0 to 54.924%
53.0 to 53.923%

$14.0K Vol.monthly

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

8%chance

$122.1K Vol.2 months left

Bank of Korea decision in October?

No Change96%
25 bps hike4%

$38.6K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.062M27%
$1.146M - $1.165M21%

$12.5K Vol.monthly

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

22%chance

$27.1K Vol.2 months left

EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?

30M+86%
31M+79%

$39.9K Vol.monthly

OPEC dissolves in 2026?

2%chance

$42.4K Vol.2 months left

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October 2026

46.0 to 48.944%
43.0 to 45.942%

$26.5K Vol.monthly

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%67%
2.5–3.0%16%

$54.3K Vol.monthly

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

>5.0%77%
4.7-5.0%13%

$92.2K Vol.

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

14%chance

$12.6K Vol.2 months left

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

41%chance

$4.1K Vol.17 days left

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

1.2m56%
1.3m14%

$188.0K Vol.

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026? (Higher Brackets)

<1600.0047%
1600.00–1699.9936%

$22.4K Vol.monthly

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

1-2%91%
0-1%7%

$111.7K Vol.

What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on December 31?

$327K+23%
$323K - $327K20%

$14.8K Vol.monthly

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026

30.0-34.9%66%
25-29.9%30%

$79.9K Vol.monthly

Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?

10%chance

$2.3K Vol.2 months left

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

24%chance

$1.6K Vol.2 months left

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%96%
5.0–6.0%4%

$931.3K Vol.

South African Reserve Bank Decision in November?

No Change73%
50+ bps decrease21%

$25.6 Vol.annual

US recession by end of 2027?

34%chance

$10.9K Vol.1 year left

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

4%chance

$245.0K Vol.2 months left

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026?

1600.00+46%
1550.00–1599.9932%

$12.0K Vol.monthly

JPMorgan (JPM) closes at $1T+ market cap by…?

December 3118%
October 3114%

$15.2K Vol.

GDP growth in 2026

2.0–2.5%51%
>2.5%49%

$88.5K Vol.monthly

Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?

3%chance

$94.7K Vol.2 months left

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

13%chance

$30.9K Vol.2 months left

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

98%chance

$58.8K Vol.2 months left

Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?

1.3%+48%
1.0-1.2%41%

$63.3K Vol.annual

Bank of Korea decision in November?

No Change49%
25 bps hike43%

$32.6K Vol.annual

October Unemployment Rate

4.2%37%
4.1%29%

$6.5K Vol.monthly