Trump

Fed Decision in October?
- No change81%
- 25 bps increase20%
$33.6M Vol.monthly

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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1597%
October 3181%

$11.5M Vol.monthly

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 12>99%
October 1595%

$1.1M Vol.

$39.4M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3124%
October 316%

$8.9M Vol.

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

33%chance

$546.2K Vol.9 months left

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change23%

$3.0M Vol.monthly

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

20%chance

$176.4K Vol.19 days left

Fed Decision in January?

No change65%
25 bps increase33%

$345.7K Vol.monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202767%
November 30, 202766%

$8.5M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3113%
October 313%

$2.3M Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?

100-11941%
120-13935%

$66.9K Vol.daily

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?

Shit>99%
Executive Order46%

$33.5K Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3136%
November 3028%

$3.0M Vol.

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3111%
October 3110%

$18.1K Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

3%chance

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez25%

$98.2M Vol.

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M76%
270M9%

$30.9K Vol.monthly

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202646%
November 30, 202630%

$690.2K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

200+25%
140-15925%

$33.9K Vol.daily

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3153%
Qatar18%

$154.5K Vol.

Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by...?

December 3178%
October 3170%

$68.0K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin80%
Mohammed bin Salman75%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Abbas Araghchi43%
Jared Kushner42%

$1.3M Vol.

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

10%chance

$63.3K Vol.2 months left

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3134%
November 3024%

$1.8M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

77%chance

$162.3K Vol.22 days left

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+19%
180-19918%

$17.4K Vol.daily

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.1M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3136%
October 3110%

$6.6M Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US1%

$3.7M Vol.

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Jon Ossoff97%
Barack Obama97%

$108.8K Vol.monthly

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Below 19024%
205-20922%

$324.9K Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

3%chance

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202756%
Pete Hegseth8%

$101.0K Vol.annual

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?

Save America Act94%
Healthcare90%

$4.0K Vol.

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

Flávio Bolsonaro85%
Delcy Rodriguez76%

$67.8K Vol.monthly

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Mohammed bin Salman98%
Friedrich Merz92%

$207.5K Vol.monthly

Which bills will become law in 2026?

$183.0K Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

2%chance

$35.7M Vol.2 months left

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

18%chance

$31.3K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman58%
Dario Amodei49%

$51.5K Vol.monthly

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

4.25%26%
4.75%16%

$18.7K Vol.

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

↓ 37%89%
↓ 36%66%

$2.6K Vol.

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

December 3111%
October 313%

$507.0K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3181%
November 3076%

$389.9K Vol.

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

October 1397%
October 1497%

$36.6K Vol.monthly

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

4%chance

$215.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

3%chance

$378.3K Vol.7 days left

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

3%chance

$154.7K Vol.2 months left

Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?

No Endorsement81%
Likud12%

$59.7K Vol.

Kash Patel out by...?

December 3127%
October 312%

$1.8M Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

18%chance

$498.9K Vol.2 months left

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Budget>99%
Nobel80%

$1.8K Vol.weekly

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202727%
December 31, 20265%

$32.4K Vol.

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

5%chance

$42.0K Vol.2 months left

Which states will Trump visit before the midterms?

Georgia>99%
Alaska99%

$22.9K Vol.

Will Trump be impeached by...?

December 31, 202768%
June 30, 202747%

$1.0M Vol.

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan20%
Mahmoud Khalil19%

$493.6K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

3%chance

$255.8K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?

Flávio Bolsonaro19%
Romeu Zema<1%

$53.4K Vol.

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Donald Brodie35%
Stefan Brodie17%

$508.9K Vol.

Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?

31%chance

$205.4K Vol.2 months left

US strike on Colombia by...?

23%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%68%
4.0%18%

$6.9M Vol.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

2%chance

$545.3K Vol.2 months left

Lai Ching-te visits US by...?

June 3025%
December 316%

$1.9K Vol.

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?

4%chance

$6.9K Vol.18 days left

How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?

1-10070%
1k-2.5k18%

$302.2K Vol.

Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by…?

December 31, 202740%
December 31, 202637%

$16.6K Vol.

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

1%chance

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines43%
Anduril21%

$214.3K Vol.

How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?

4-692%
7-95%

$104.0K Vol.

What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Iran88%
China51%

$676.9 Vol.weekly

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Dan Scavino28%
Markwayne Mullin28%

$1.4M Vol.monthly

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?

345%
432%

$9.8K Vol.

Will Trump visit North Korea by...?

7%chance

$133.7K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?

166%
231%

$12.3K Vol.

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

16%chance

$271.7K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Alabama?

172%
228%

$8.7K Vol.

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

5%chance

$30.1K Vol.2 months left

Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?

6%chance

$337.4K Vol.2 months left

NATO dissolves before 2027?

1%chance

$125.0K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Colorado?

536%
627%

$6.6K Vol.

US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

5%chance

$63.3K Vol.2 months left

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 15?

78%chance

$289.9 Vol.3 days left

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Japan20%
South Korea19%

$678.0K Vol.annual

Next High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026?

No HR in 202662%
William Ruger15%

$28.4K Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 317%
October 31<1%

$18.0M Vol.

Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30?

12%chance

$3.1K Vol.Ended

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 319%
October 31<1%

$350.0K Vol.

Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?

8%chance

$7.6K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

7%chance

$115.8K Vol.2 months left

Next US Senate Minority Leader?

John Thune46%
Chuck Schumer31%

$9.5K Vol.

Trump

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Trump out as President before 2027?

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?

US strike on Colombia by...?

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

Will Trump visit North Korea by...?

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?

NATO dissolves before 2027?

US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 15?

Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30?

Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?