World

Next French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen42%
- Édouard Philippe22%
$149.9M Vol.

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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance

$73.8M Vol.2 months left

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot46%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$45.8M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election

$180.4M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$611.4K Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3125%
October 316%

$8.8M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$43.9M Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202746%
June 30, 202734%

$2.9M Vol.

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

3%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson82%
Ulf Kristersson16%

$10.0M Vol.

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

4%chance

$351.2K Vol.2 months left

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20263%

$28.8M Vol.

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change79%
25 bps increase21%

$107.8K Vol.annual

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

6%chance

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

$172.0K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$53.9K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

$43.5K Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei88%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas <5%21%
Ruas 5-10%16%

$21.2K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3118%

$1.8M Vol.

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

$81.9K Vol.

Spain General Election Winner

PP86%
PSOE14%

$99.7K Vol.

Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?

61%chance

$48.8K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2838%
Tally Gotliv13%

$44.5K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova89%
Аndrey Gyurov12%

$1.2M Vol.

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%68%
Remain 20–40%20%

$14.6K Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

Yashar56%
The Democrats55%

$50.4K Vol.

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?

5%chance

$104.7K Vol.2 months left

Netanyahu out by...?

41%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yoram Cohen14%

$41.9K Vol.

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

12%chance

$225.1K Vol.2 months left

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$250.7K Vol.

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

14%chance

$182.0K Vol.2 months left

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

4%chance

$215.2K Vol.2 months left

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027

Donald Trump10%
UNRWA8%

$1.7K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

3%chance

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

Amazonas Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Aziz 6-10%37%
Aziz 10-15%27%

$5.5K Vol.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase53%
No change43%

$93.2K Vol.annual

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026

30.0-34.9%61%
25-29.9%33%

$79.8K Vol.monthly

New pandemic in 2026?

5%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

El Salvador Legislative Election: 3rd Place

PCN35%
PDC32%

$5.6K Vol.

Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?

14%chance

$5.6K Vol.15 days left

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

80%chance

$822.9K Vol.2 months left

Vancouver-Yaletown British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Margareta Dovgal59%
Terry Yung30%

$3.0K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

23%chance

$15.3K Vol.1 year left

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Ofer Winter14%

$29.9K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

5%chance

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Ding Xuexiang5%
Dong Jun4%

$250.9K Vol.

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

December 31, 202614%
October 31, 20269%

$362.1K Vol.

Ukraine lowers conscription age by...?

March 3117%
December 316%

$4.0K Vol.

EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by...?

December 3194%
October 3176%

$6.2K Vol.monthly

Israel Election: United Torah Judaism vote share?

5-6%36%
6-7%35%

$5.1K Vol.

Kelowna Centre British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Kristina Loewen53%
Loyal Wooldridge24%

$1.8K Vol.

Macron out by...?

4%chance

$38.2K Vol.2 months left

Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Kevin Acton81%
Harwinder Sandhu17%

$4.1K Vol.

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?

<460%
4-638%

$9.0K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland13%
Kuwait7%

$1.7M Vol.

Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Ra'am96%
RZP-Zehut87%

$14.0K Vol.

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

5%chance

$220.7K Vol.2 months left

Federal District Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Celina 10-15%28%
Celina 25%+27%

$2.6K Vol.

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

5%chance

$553.8K Vol.2 months left

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout

78-80%60%
80-82%19%

$10.2K Vol.

Richmond-Steveston British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Gordon Zhang63%
Bruce Kong20%

$2.8K Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?

AfD72%
Grüne14%

$56.6K Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?

SPD96%
Grüne79%

$20.8K Vol.

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

12%chance

$92.7K Vol.2 months left

Bank of Korea decision in October?

No Change95%
25 bps hike6%

$38.3K Vol.annual

Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Allyson 15%+25%
Cadu wins22%

$7.6K Vol.

Acre Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Mailza 20%+37%
Mailza 10-15%32%

$3.4K Vol.

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Surrey-Fleetwood British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Garry Purewal50%
Jagrup Brar37%

$1.9K Vol.

North Island British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Anna Kindy78%
Sara Lopez15%

$943.9 Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen82%
Édouard Philippe10%

$532.0 Vol.

World

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?

Netanyahu out by...?

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

New pandemic in 2026?

Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Macron out by...?

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?