Trump

Fed Decision in October?
- No change80%
- 25 bps increase20%
$34.8M Vol.monthly

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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1597%
October 3181%

$12.0M Vol.monthly

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1899%

$1.8M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3168%
December 3143%

$39.6M Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$317.5K Vol.Ended

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase75%
No change24%

$3.2M Vol.monthly

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.0M Vol.2 months left

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%57%
4.0%25%

$7.0M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3127%
October 318%

$8.9M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202766%

$8.6M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

21%chance

$194.8K Vol.18 days left

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3128%
October 317%

$28.9K Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3137%
November 3028%

$3.0M Vol.

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

>99%chance

$659.1K Vol.2 months left

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?

Pipeline97%
Healthcare97%

$24.0K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 313%

$2.3M Vol.

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

32%chance

$546.6K Vol.9 months left

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4740%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3136%
November 3025%

$1.8M Vol.

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

20%chance

$71.4K Vol.2 months left

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3114%
October 314%

$33.3K Vol.

$701.4K Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M53%
270M8%

$32.4K Vol.monthly

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin79%
Mohammed bin Salman76%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Fed Decision in January?

No change68%
25 bps increase31%

$346.3K Vol.monthly

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.4M Vol.2 months left

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202746%
Pete Hegseth8%

$104.1K Vol.annual

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

36.8+92%
37.0+85%

$6.1K Vol.weekly

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

US military draft authorized in 2026?

4%chance

$544.3K Vol.2 months left

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

140-15928%
180-19918%

$38.3K Vol.daily

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3135%
October 3110%

$6.6M Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

3%chance

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

100-11917%
200+17%

$21.1K Vol.daily

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Jon Ossoff97%
Barack Obama97%

$110.8K Vol.monthly

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff43%
Jared Kushner42%

$1.3M Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+23%
160-17919%

$4.3K Vol.daily

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro72%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.2M Vol.

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

↓ 37%86%
↓ 36%66%

$4.2K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

17%chance

$502.7K Vol.2 months left

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Kash Patel out by...?

December 3125%
October 318%

$1.8M Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.7M Vol.

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Friedrich Merz93%
Ursula von der Leyen92%

$209.6K Vol.monthly

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

4.25%21%
4.75%14%

$19.7K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%16%
Below 4.6%6%

$353.7K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

71%chance

$111.0K Vol.2 years left

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

October 1398%
October 1798%

$38.0K Vol.monthly

Will Trump be impeached by...?

December 31, 202768%
June 30, 202748%

$1.1M Vol.

Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?

No Endorsement80%
Likud18%

$62.4K Vol.

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

11%chance

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

Flávio Bolsonaro84%
Delcy Rodriguez71%

$69.5K Vol.monthly

Who will be arrested before 2027?

Mahmoud Khalil21%
John Brennan20%

$495.6K Vol.

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 319%
October 31<1%

$352.3K Vol.

Trump approval rating on October 16?

38.4+24%
38.2–38.320%

$2.3K Vol.weekly

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Nobel81%
Waitress76%

$3.2K Vol.weekly

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202731%
December 31, 20265%

$33.2K Vol.

JD Vance out as VP by...?

4%chance

$155.5K Vol.2 months left

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3154%
Qatar19%

$155.3K Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Germany16%
Japan14%

$679.6K Vol.annual

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Donald Brodie36%
Stefan Brodie17%

$509.8K Vol.

Which states will Trump visit before the midterms?

Georgia>99%
Arizona99%

$23.6K Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

2%chance

$35.7M Vol.2 months left

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3181%
November 3075%

$391.0K Vol.

Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?

$409.8K Vol.

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

CXMT29%
CATL26%

$475.6K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Tennessee?

082%
113%

$1.1K Vol.

How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?

4-691%
7-98%

$104.6K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

2%chance

$255.9K Vol.2 months left

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

December 3184%
October 3159%

$7.3K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman48%
Dario Amodei38%

$52.0K Vol.monthly

Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?

Flávio Bolsonaro18%
Romeu Zema<1%

$53.4K Vol.

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

November 3084%
October 3170%

$7.7K Vol.annual

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

11%chance

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

5%chance

$42.7K Vol.2 months left

Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by...?

December 3116%
October 316%

$719.7 Vol.

Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by…?

December 31, 202744%
December 31, 202642%

$16.6K Vol.

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?

4%chance

$6.9K Vol.18 days left

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

10%chance

$746.8K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump visit North Korea by...?

8%chance

$133.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?

3%chance

$26.9K Vol.2 months left

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Kristi Noem28%
Dan Scavino27%

$1.4M Vol.monthly

How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?

166%
231%

$12.3K Vol.

NATO dissolves before 2027?

1%chance

$125.1K Vol.2 months left

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 317%
October 31<1%

$18.0M Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Iowa?

349%
228%

$24.3K Vol.

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

1%chance

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

5%chance

$30.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

6%chance

$799.0K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Colorado?

536%
628%

$6.6K Vol.

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

15%chance

$271.9K Vol.2 months left

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 15?

78%chance

$289.9 Vol.2 days left

US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

5%chance

$63.3K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

4%chance

$182.2K Vol.2 months left

Trump

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US military draft authorized in 2026?

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

JD Vance out as VP by...?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

Will Trump visit North Korea by...?

Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?

NATO dissolves before 2027?

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 15?

US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?