Iran

$92.4K Vol.17 days left

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3153%
Qatar19%

$154.7K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

7%chance

$762.7K Vol.47 days left

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

$142.2K Vol.2 months left

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3057%
October 3133%

$86.0K Vol.

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202718%
December 3111%

$4.8M Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

7%chance

$823.5K Vol.17 days left

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3128%
October 318%

$10.2M Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

$544.3K Vol.2 months left

$2.4M Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Iraq by...?

October 3155%
October 1544%

$11.9K Vol.

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M27%
3.0 - 3.5M27%

$113.5K Vol.monthly

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

October 3162%
October 1552%

$16.5K Vol.

US military draft authorized in 2026?

4%chance

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$3.5M Vol.

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+47%
2.7-2.8M19%

$42.3K Vol.monthly

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

19%chance

$501.8K Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Israel military action against Beirut by...?

9%chance

$20.5K Vol.17 days left

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?

0-583%
5-109%

$17.8K Vol.monthly

Riyadh airport reopens (50+ departures) by...?

October 3178%
October 2042%

$2.3K Vol.

Houthis target Pakistan by...?

December 3112%
October 315%

$2.3K Vol.

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

December 31, 202734%
June 30, 202730%

$8.5M Vol.

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

$555.9K Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

25-2953%
20-2420%

$43.3K Vol.monthly

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3016%

$513.4K Vol.

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?

170-18928%
210-22923%

$5.1K Vol.weekly

Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?

December 3127%
October 3113%

$63.8K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3123%
October 318%

$337.2K Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

25-2928%
<2022%

$5.2K Vol.weekly

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

November 3084%
October 3172%

$1.4K Vol.

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

$281.5K Vol.2 months left

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$35.8K Vol.monthly

Israel military action against Yemen by...?

December 3125%
October 318%

$329.3K Vol.

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

35%chance

$18.7K Vol.2 months left

Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...?

December 3115%
October 314%

$5.0K Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

October 3139%
October 1515%

$131.6K Vol.

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 5?

190-20937%
210-22931%

$7.4K Vol.weekly

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

October 598%
October 896%

$63.2K Vol.monthly

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

$272.2K Vol.2 months left

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 316%
October 154%

$20.0K Vol.

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

October 3160%
October 152%

$10.4K Vol.

Houthis target Syria by...?

December 315%
October 314%

$4.1K Vol.

Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?

November 3056%
October 3126%

$17.3K Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 317%
October 31<1%

$18.0M Vol.

Will Iran target Jordan by...?

17%chance

$6.2K Vol.17 days left

Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by...?

14%chance

$6.5K Vol.17 days left

Houthi military action against Israel by...?

December 3124%
October 318%

$250.6K Vol.

0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?

16%chance

$3.4K Vol.2 months left

Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?

14%chance

$25.9K Vol.2 months left

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?

$119.8K Vol.2 months left

$2.1K Vol.17 days left

Iran coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202720%
December 31, 202611%

$2.1M Vol.

IEA asks Germany to release oil stocks by...?

October 3134%
December 3134%

$6.5K Vol.

Houthi military action against Mecca by...?

December 314%
October 313%

$6.8K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

23%chance

$15.3K Vol.1 year left

Will Iran target Qatar by...?

6%chance

$974.4 Vol.17 days left

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

473%
513%

$7.6M Vol.

Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?

November 3036%
October 317%

$97.2K Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+91%
31M+85%

$33.3K Vol.monthly

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?

4%chance

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

30%chance

$27.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Kuwait by...?

October 3113%
October 1511%

$24.1K Vol.

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?

6%chance

$4.7K Vol.17 days left

IEA asks France to release oil stocks by...?

December 3141%
October 3132%

$3.9K Vol.

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

8%chance

$53.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Oman by...?

November 3014%
October 316%

$45.1K Vol.

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

$861.8K Vol.2 months left

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

$641.4K Vol.2 months left

Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?

8%chance

$4.8K Vol.17 days left

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?

10+29%
20+13%

$4.3K Vol.monthly

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

26%chance

$33.5K Vol.2 months left

Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...?

October 313%
October 15<1%

$13.8K Vol.

Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

9%chance

$234.6K Vol.2 months left

European military action against Iran by...?

December 316%
October 311%

$328.7K Vol.

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

10%chance

$604.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Syria by...?

$2.1K Vol.17 days left

KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?

$273.6K Vol.2 months left

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

September 2191%
September 2990%

$182.7K Vol.monthly

Will Iran target Bahrain by...?

49%chance

$2.5K Vol.17 days left

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?

<17026%
170-18926%

$0.0 Vol.weekly

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 19?

<2026%
20-2426%

$0.0 Vol.weekly

Panama Canal effectively closed by...?

December 316%
November 304%

$380.3 Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?

30M+86%
31M+79%

$39.8K Vol.monthly

Will gas hit __ by end of October?

↑ $4.5050%
↓ $4.3047%

$1.1K Vol.monthly

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

16%chance

$15.0K Vol.8 months left

Trump and Pezeshkian meet by December 31?

10%chance

$133.2 Vol.2 months left

US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Oct 31?

$290.4 Vol.17 days left

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?

$1.3K Vol.17 days left

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3112%
November 306%

$23.5K Vol.

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

September 2417%
September 2516%

$122.1K Vol.monthly

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?

$63.1K Vol.Ended

Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?

7%chance

$35.5K Vol.17 days left

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?

US28%
Australia18%

$51.2K Vol.monthly

Will Iran target Egypt by...?

$1.3K Vol.17 days left

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$7.2K Vol.17 days left

Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

1%chance

$1.3K Vol.17 days left

Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

1%chance

$1.0K Vol.17 days left

Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$2.1K Vol.17 days left

Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$1.2K Vol.17 days left

Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$125.7K Vol.2 months left

$643.6 Vol.17 days left

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

December 313%
October 31<1%

$1.1M Vol.

Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?

December 314%
October 31<1%

$118.0K Vol.

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

4%chance

Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?

12%chance

$20.9K Vol.2 months left

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

9%chance

$30.0K Vol.17 days left

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

December 3114%
October 311%

$407.0K Vol.

Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?

$13.2K Vol.2 months left

Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?