Geopolitics

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 1597%
- October 3181%
$11.7M Vol.monthly

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 1598%
October 3182%

$1.5M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.1M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$73.9M Vol.2 months left

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20264%

$29.0M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3167%
December 3143%

$39.5M Vol.

Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

October 1495%
October 1588%

$395.7K Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot46%
Benjamin Netanyahu32%

$45.8M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$163.7K Vol.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1598%
October 3186%

$34.1M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$132.5K Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3125%
October 319%

$8.9M Vol.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 318%
October 31<1%

$75.9M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$70.1K Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202747%
Netanyahu - Israel PM33%

$1.0M Vol.annual

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%chance

$2.3M Vol.18 days left

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.0M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$44.1K Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3118%
October 318%

$229.2K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

23%chance

$178.8K Vol.18 days left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202766%

$8.5M Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202721%
December 3111%

$27.3M Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$16.9M Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3145%
November 3041%

$304.1K Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3114%
November 307%

$19.9M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3113%
October 313%

$2.3M Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202761%
March 31, 202740%

$2.0M Vol.

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

3%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$124.1K Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3119%
October 315%

$7.3M Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3114%
October 316%

$21.0K Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5?

25-2951%
20-2426%

$50.1K Vol.weekly

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$50.5K Vol.

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

5%chance

$367.1K Vol.2 months left

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3137%
November 3028%

$3.0M Vol.

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

December 3125%
October 317%

$149.9K Vol.

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027

Donald Trump9%
Yulia Navalnaya8%

$14.2K Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

3%chance

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

77%chance

$169.5K Vol.21 days left