Trump

Fed Decision in October?
- No change80%
- 25 bps increase20%
$33.1M Vol.monthly

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US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 12>99%
October 1595%

$1.1M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 12>99%
October 1596%

$11.1M Vol.monthly

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance

$73.8M Vol.2 months left

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3167%
December 3143%

$39.4M Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

24%chance

$144.6K Vol.Ended

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3126%
October 317%

$8.8M Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change23%

$3.0M Vol.monthly

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

33%chance

$526.7K Vol.9 months left

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3136%
November 3028%

$3.0M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

21%chance

$159.7K Vol.19 days left

Fed Decision in January?

No change64%
25 bps increase33%

$339.6K Vol.monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202767%
November 30, 202766%

$8.5M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3113%
October 313%

$2.3M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro72%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.2M Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?

120-13954%
140-15921%

$63.9K Vol.daily

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?

Transgender97%
Fake News96%

$22.4K Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3135%
November 3024%

$1.8M Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US1%

$3.7M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202646%
November 30, 202630%

$689.7K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Jared Kushner42%
Steve Witkoff42%

$1.3M Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

200+27%
180-19924%

$31.9K Vol.daily

Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by...?

December 3173%
October 3169%

$64.1K Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3150%
Qatar17%

$153.1K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3118%

$1.8M Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin80%
Mohammed bin Salman69%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

76%chance

$157.9K Vol.22 days left

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+23%
140-15918%

$16.0K Vol.daily

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Below 19028%
205-20922%

$324.8K Vol.

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

Flávio Bolsonaro84%
Delcy Rodriguez78%

$66.5K Vol.monthly

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.1M Vol.

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M85%
270M9%

$22.5K Vol.monthly

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Barack Obama97%
Jon Ossoff96%

$105.8K Vol.monthly

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Mark Carney>99%
Mohammed bin Salman94%

$205.8K Vol.monthly

Which bills will become law in 2026?

$182.7K Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3132%
October 319%

$6.6M Vol.

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman52%
Dario Amodei52%

$51.1K Vol.monthly

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?

5%chance

$104.7K Vol.2 months left

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3181%
November 3076%

$389.7K Vol.

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

December 3111%
October 313%

$507.0K Vol.

$59.7K Vol.

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

4%chance

$215.2K Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

3%chance

$154.7K Vol.2 months left

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

3%chance

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202751%
December 31, 20266%

$30.9K Vol.

Will Trump be impeached by...?

December 31, 202766%
June 30, 202749%

$1.0M Vol.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

2%chance

$545.3K Vol.2 months left

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

5%chance

$42.0K Vol.2 months left

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3128%
October 3111%

$2.1K Vol.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

11%chance

$746.2K Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

24%chance

$15.2K Vol.1 year left

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Mardi Gras76%
Pilot75%

$950.2 Vol.weekly

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

October 1297%
October 1496%

$35.0K Vol.monthly

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan20%
Mahmoud Khalil20%

$493.2K Vol.

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Markwayne Mullin37%
Kristi Noem31%

$1.4M Vol.monthly

US strike on Colombia by...?

23%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?

4%chance

$6.9K Vol.19 days left

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%67%
4.0%18%

$6.9M Vol.

Lai Ching-te visits US by...?

June 3031%
December 317%

$1.9K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

18%chance

$498.4K Vol.2 months left

CNN flies with Trump by..?

October 3113%
October 153%

$18.4K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in New York?

2035%
1931%

$10.2K Vol.

Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...?

October 314%
October 152%

$13.8K Vol.

How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?

1-10070%
1k-2.5k18%

$302.2K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?

344%
432%

$9.7K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Michigan?

935%
824%

$32.7K Vol.

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3114%
November 308%

$10.0K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Florida?

715%
12+14%

$12.9K Vol.

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202743%
Pete Hegseth8%

$97.2K Vol.annual

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

15%chance

$271.6K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Colorado?

535%
628%

$6.3K Vol.

Trump meets with Mark Carney by...?

18%chance

$1.3K Vol.19 days left

Trump

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

US strike on Colombia by...?

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

Trump meets with Mark Carney by...?