Geopolitics

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
- October 12>99%
- October 1595%
$1.1M Vol.

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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 12>99%
October 1596%

$11.1M Vol.monthly

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$980.3K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance

$73.8M Vol.2 months left

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3167%
December 3143%

$39.4M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot46%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$45.7M Vol.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1597%
October 3186%

$34.0M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3126%
October 317%

$8.8M Vol.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 318%
October 311%

$75.9M Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$16.9M Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$111.6K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$43.9M Vol.2 months left

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3136%
November 3028%

$3.0M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.6M Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202761%
March 31, 202740%

$2.0M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

21%chance

$159.7K Vol.19 days left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202767%
November 30, 202766%

$8.5M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3113%
October 313%

$2.3M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro72%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.2M Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$45.0K Vol.

$27.2M Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3153%
November 3046%

$288.1K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

7%chance

$758.1K Vol.49 days left

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202752%
Netanyahu - Israel PM23%

$969.4K Vol.annual

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3114%
November 307%

$19.9M Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20263%

$28.8M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

<1%chance

$2.2M Vol.19 days left

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3152%
November 3038%

$1.3M Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3122%
October 315%

$7.3M Vol.

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3128%
October 317%

$10.2M Vol.

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

December 3125%
October 317%

$148.5K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 3177%
November 3059%

$508.1K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

6%chance

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3135%
November 3024%

$1.8M Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3120%
October 319%

$186.3K Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

28%chance

$531.5K Vol.2 months left

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

$171.9K Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3057%
October 3138%

$83.4K Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US1%

$3.7M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$52.6K Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202646%
November 30, 202630%

$689.7K Vol.

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Druzkhivka36%
Kramatorsk11%

$1.7M Vol.

Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

October 1397%
October 1492%

$198.2K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3123%
October 318%

$336.5K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$92.3K Vol.19 days left

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei88%
No Head of State4%

$40.2M Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3118%

$1.8M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Jared Kushner42%
Steve Witkoff42%

$1.3M Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3150%
Qatar17%

$153.5K Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5?

25-2941%
30-3437%

$35.5K Vol.weekly

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

$41.7K Vol.

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202718%
December 3111%

$4.8M Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

7%chance

$818.8K Vol.19 days left

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$7.6K Vol.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

23%chance

$455.8K Vol.2 months left

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

76%chance

$156.1K Vol.22 days left

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Venezuela17%
Kuwait9%

$896.7K Vol.

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?

335%
235%

$20.3K Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$249.0K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3181%
November 3076%

$388.8K Vol.

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

December 3133%
October 3119%

$91.7K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2828%
Tally Gotliv13%

$43.0K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Matan Kahana16%

$40.8K Vol.

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

14%chance

$181.9K Vol.2 months left

US military action against Cuba by...?

11%chance

$5.4M Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman53%
Dario Amodei52%

$50.1K Vol.monthly

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Mark Carney>99%
Mohammed bin Salman95%

$205.0K Vol.monthly

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

4%chance

$421.1K Vol.2 months left

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?

0-580%
5-1013%

$16.8K Vol.monthly

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?

5%chance

$104.7K Vol.2 months left

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202724%
December 31, 20268%

$249.9K Vol.

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 3118%
October 318%

$3.5M Vol.

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

11%chance

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

October 12>99%
October 1356%

$253.4K Vol.monthly

Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 3115%
October 155%

$35.7K Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.2M Vol.

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

October 1280%
October 476%

$842.0K Vol.monthly

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

October 1299%
October 1494%

$135.9K Vol.

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

$553.8K Vol.

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

10%chance

$604.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Iraq by...?

October 3168%
October 1544%

$5.7K Vol.

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

4%chance

$215.2K Vol.2 months left

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

3%chance

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

9%chance

$196.9K Vol.2 months left

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$7.2K Vol.8 months left

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

5%chance

$220.7K Vol.2 months left

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

30-3424%
25-2921%

$3.8K Vol.weekly

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

2%chance

$7.2K Vol.19 days left

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

3%chance

$154.6K Vol.2 months left

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

October 798%
October 495%

$8.4K Vol.monthly

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

5%chance

$42.0K Vol.2 months left

Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...?

December 31, 202621%
October 31, 20267%

$108.8K Vol.

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Rebeca Grynspan38%
Rafael Grossi17%

$222.1K Vol.

Israel Election: RZP-Zehut # of seats?

4-531%
6-730%

$11.1K Vol.

Will Russia invade another country by...?

December 31, 202716%
December 31, 20266%

$605.8K Vol.

Israel military action against Beirut by...?

14%chance

$19.1K Vol.19 days left

Houthi military action against Israel by...?

December 3124%
October 317%

$250.4K Vol.

USS George H.W. Bush in CENTCOM on...?

November 3078%
October 3173%

$8.5K Vol.

Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?

December 3118%
October 314%

$50.0K Vol.

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?

190-20938%
170-18930%

$3.2K Vol.weekly

US strike on Colombia by...?

23%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

October 3162%
October 1534%

$11.0K Vol.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

11%chance

$746.2K Vol.2 months left

Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...?

October 314%
October 152%

$13.8K Vol.

NATO downs another Russian drone by...?

October 3134%
October 1515%

$8.9K Vol.

Who will Putin meet bilaterally in Turkmenistan?

Ilham Aliyev25%
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev22%

$106.3K Vol.

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

13%chance

$224.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?

9%chance

$42.8K Vol.19 days left

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Ding Xuexiang5%
Dong Jun4%

$250.7K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

24%chance

$15.2K Vol.1 year left

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

11%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Ukraine lowers conscription age by...?

March 3119%
December 316%

$4.0K Vol.

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?

4%chance

$6.9K Vol.19 days left

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?

11%chance

$4.6K Vol.19 days left

Ukraine election called by...?

7%chance

$96.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by...?

December 3134%
October 3114%

$11.3K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland16%
Kuwait7%

$1.7M Vol.

Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?

December 3126%
October 3113%

$62.0K Vol.

Another NATO article 4 by...?

December 3123%
October 318%

$181.8K Vol.

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

October 10>99%
October 11>99%

$62.6K Vol.monthly

Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...?

December 3122%
October 315%

$4.4K Vol.

Lai Ching-te visits US by...?

June 3029%
December 317%

$1.8K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?

67%chance

$65.0K Vol.2 months left

Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?

Kuwait19%
Bahrain10%

$78.7K Vol.

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?

<459%
4-636%

$9.0K Vol.

How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?

1-10070%
1k-2.5k19%

$302.2K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

4%chance

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 317%
October 31<1%

$18.0M Vol.

Geopolitics

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Trump out as President before 2027?

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

US military action against Cuba by...?

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027?

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

Israel military action against Beirut by...?

US strike on Colombia by...?

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?

Ukraine election called by...?

Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?