risk-manager
Joined Oct 2024
risk.manager.poly [at] gmail
- Positions value
$145,003.93
- Profit/Loss(all time)
+$195,276.86
- Volume traded
$698,596,066.84
872 markets traded
- Biggest win
+$195,720.31
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025…
| Market | Shares | Avg → Now | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No31,969.2 shares80.7¢ → 91¢ | 31,969.2 | 80.7¢ → 91¢ | $29,075.99 +$3,279.21 (+12.7%) |
 Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No26,000 shares79.5¢ → 74.5¢ | 26,000 | 79.5¢ → 74.5¢ | $19,369.97 -$1,299.66 (-6.3%) |
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes105,000.1 shares30.9¢ → 15.5¢ | 105,000.1 | 30.9¢ → 15.5¢ | $16,222.52 -$16,233.23 (-50%) |
 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No15,119.2 shares94¢ → 96.8¢ | 15,119.2 | 94¢ → 96.8¢ | $14,627.78 +$412.80 (+2.9%) |
 Will GameStop acquire eBay? No14,916.5 shares83.7¢ → 94.5¢ | 14,916.5 | 83.7¢ → 94.5¢ | $14,096.05 +$1,604.44 (+12.8%) |
 Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No10,000.4 shares83¢ → 90.5¢ | 10,000.4 | 83¢ → 90.5¢ | $9,050.35 +$750.04 (+9%) |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No10,000 shares82.7¢ → 82.5¢ | 10,000 | 82.7¢ → 82.5¢ | $8,250.01 -$24.99 (-0.3%) |
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No5,067.6 shares84.4¢ → 97.4¢ | 5,067.6 | 84.4¢ → 97.4¢ | $4,935.87 +$657.72 (+15.4%) |
 Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No5,000 shares86¢ → 89.5¢ | 5,000 | 86¢ → 89.5¢ | $4,475.00 +$175.00 (+4.1%) |
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes5,456.6 shares88.9¢ → 82¢ | 5,456.6 | 88.9¢ → 82¢ | $4,474.45 -$374.49 (-7.7%) |
 Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No4,500 shares75¢ → 95.5¢ | 4,500 | 75¢ → 95.5¢ | $4,297.47 +$922.53 (+27.3%) |
 Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes2,194,023.2 shares0.8¢ → 0.2¢ | 2,194,023.2 | 0.8¢ → 0.2¢ | $3,291.03 -$14,222.46 (-81.2%) |
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No3,000 shares89¢ → 92.5¢ | 3,000 | 89¢ → 92.5¢ | $2,775.00 +$105.00 (+3.9%) |
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No4,000 shares70¢ → 53.5¢ | 4,000 | 70¢ → 53.5¢ | $2,140.01 -$660.00 (-23.6%) |
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes2,000 shares69.7¢ → 93.5¢ | 2,000 | 69.7¢ → 93.5¢ | $1,869.98 +$475.00 (+34.1%) |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes6,500 shares57.1¢ → 14.5¢ | 6,500 | 57.1¢ → 14.5¢ | $942.49 -$2,767.45 (-74.6%) |
 Trump out as President before 2027? Yes19,158.3 shares14.8¢ → 3.9¢ | 19,158.3 | 14.8¢ → 3.9¢ | $737.59 -$2,088.25 (-73.9%) |
 Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes430,574 shares0.2¢ → 0.2¢ | 430,574 | 0.2¢ → 0.2¢ | $645.86 -$215.29 (-25%) |
 Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? No1,574.1 shares84.3¢ → 36.5¢ | 1,574.1 | 84.3¢ → 36.5¢ | $574.53 -$752.26 (-56.7%) |
 Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? No450 shares75.6¢ → 96.5¢ | 450 | 75.6¢ → 96.5¢ | $434.03 +$93.83 (+27.6%) |
 Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? Anthropic450 shares67¢ → 91.5¢ | 450 | 67¢ → 91.5¢ | $411.75 +$110.25 (+36.6%) |
 Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes250,000 shares0.4¢ → 0.2¢ | 250,000 | 0.4¢ → 0.2¢ | $375.00 -$625.00 (-62.5%) |
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes492.6 shares80.7¢ → 69.5¢ | 492.6 | 80.7¢ → 69.5¢ | $342.33 -$55.07 (-13.9%) |
 Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes195,884.5 shares0.6¢ → 0.2¢ | 195,884.5 | 0.6¢ → 0.2¢ | $293.83 -$881.28 (-75%) |
 Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes500,000 shares0.2¢ → 0.1¢ | 500,000 | 0.2¢ → 0.1¢ | $250.00 -$750.00 (-75%) |
 Modi out by December 31, 2026? No222.2 shares95.5¢ → 95.7¢ | 222.2 | 95.5¢ → 95.7¢ | $212.56 +$0.33 (+0.2%) |
 Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes398,456.2 shares0.6¢ → 0.1¢ | 398,456.2 | 0.6¢ → 0.1¢ | $199.23 -$2,191.11 (-91.7%) |
 Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes6,799.7 shares0.5¢ → 1.4¢ | 6,799.7 | 0.5¢ → 1.4¢ | $91.80 +$55.33 (+151.7%) |
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No1,500 shares23¢ → 6¢ | 1,500 | 23¢ → 6¢ | $90.00 -$255.00 (-73.9%) |
 Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes2,546.5 shares7.2¢ → 2.7¢ | 2,546.5 | 7.2¢ → 2.7¢ | $67.48 -$115.71 (-63.2%) |
 Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes30,000 shares0¢ → 0.2¢ | 30,000 | 0¢ → 0.2¢ | $45.00 +$45.00 |
 Will Mitch Landrieu win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes30,000 shares0¢ → 0.2¢ | 30,000 | 0¢ → 0.2¢ | $45.00 +$45.00 |
 Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes6,799.7 shares0.5¢ → 0.7¢ | 6,799.7 | 0.5¢ → 0.7¢ | $44.20 +$7.73 (+21.2%) |
 Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes27,297.5 shares0¢ → 0.2¢ | 27,297.5 | 0¢ → 0.2¢ | $40.95 +$40.95 |
 Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes6,799.7 shares0.5¢ → 0.5¢ | 6,799.7 | 0.5¢ → 0.5¢ | $37.40 +$0.93 (+2.6%) |
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No150 shares80¢ → 22.5¢ | 150 | 80¢ → 22.5¢ | $33.75 -$86.25 (-71.9%) |
 Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes21,066.7 shares0.4¢ → 0.2¢ | 21,066.7 | 0.4¢ → 0.2¢ | $31.60 -$52.67 (-62.5%) |
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No150 shares73¢ → 17.5¢ | 150 | 73¢ → 17.5¢ | $26.25 -$83.25 (-76%) |
 Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes30,000 shares0¢ → 0.1¢ | 30,000 | 0¢ → 0.1¢ | $15.00 +$15.00 |
 Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes30,000 shares0¢ → 0.1¢ | 30,000 | 0¢ → 0.1¢ | $15.00 +$15.00 |
 Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison? Yes669 shares15¢ → 1.8¢ | 669 | 15¢ → 1.8¢ | $11.71 -$88.65 (-88.3%) |
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes6,799.7 shares0.5¢ → 0.1¢ | 6,799.7 | 0.5¢ → 0.1¢ | $3.40 -$33.07 (-90.7%) |
 Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes6,799.7 shares0.5¢ → 0.1¢ | 6,799.7 | 0.5¢ → 0.1¢ | $3.40 -$33.07 (-90.7%) |
 Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes6,799.7 shares0.5¢ → 0.1¢ | 6,799.7 | 0.5¢ → 0.1¢ | $3.40 -$33.07 (-90.7%) |
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes6,799.7 shares0.5¢ → 0.1¢ | 6,799.7 | 0.5¢ → 0.1¢ | $3.40 -$33.07 (-90.7%) |
 Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes6,799.7 shares0.5¢ → 0.1¢ | 6,799.7 | 0.5¢ → 0.1¢ | $3.40 -$33.07 (-90.7%) |
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes6,799.7 shares0.5¢ → 0.1¢ | 6,799.7 | 0.5¢ → 0.1¢ | $3.40 -$33.07 (-90.7%) |
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes6,799.7 shares0.5¢ → 0.1¢ | 6,799.7 | 0.5¢ → 0.1¢ | $3.40 -$33.07 (-90.7%) |
 Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes6,799.7 shares0.5¢ → 0.1¢ | 6,799.7 | 0.5¢ → 0.1¢ | $3.40 -$33.07 (-90.7%) |
 Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes6,799.7 shares0.5¢ → 0.1¢ | 6,799.7 | 0.5¢ → 0.1¢ | $3.40 -$33.07 (-90.7%) |
| Type | Market | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Yield | — | $5.33 |
| Sell | Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes · 0.1 shares at 0.2¢ | $0.00 |
| Sell |
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