
gg
$416,954.61
+$1,056,815.67
$74,979,233.56
83,529 markets traded
+$61,716.23
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?| Market | Shares | Avg → Now | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No173,000 shares50¢ → 89.5¢ | 173,000 | 50¢ → 89.5¢ | $154,835.00 +$68,335.00 (+79%) |
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes24,612.8 shares85.5¢ → 86¢ | 24,612.8 | 85.5¢ → 86¢ | $21,154.70 +$102.02 (+0.5%) |
| Type | Market | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Redeem | $0.01 | |
| Buy | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? No · 1.1 shares at 9¢ | $0.10 |
Public on-chain data from Polymarket. Showing up to 50 positions and recent activity; refreshes every minute.
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes173,000 shares50¢ → 10.5¢ |
| 173,000 |
| 50¢ → 10.5¢ |
$18,165.00 -$68,335.00 (-79%) |
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes17,584.2 shares77.7¢ → 87.3¢ | 17,584.2 | 77.7¢ → 87.3¢ | $15,342.18 +$1,685.30 (+12.3%) |
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? Yes12,864.9 shares69.5¢ → 80.5¢ | 12,864.9 | 69.5¢ → 80.5¢ | $10,356.25 +$1,418.76 (+15.9%) |
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? Yes6,898.6 shares59¢ → 89.5¢ | 6,898.6 | 59¢ → 89.5¢ | $6,174.29 +$2,106.64 (+51.8%) |
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Yes8,261.9 shares31.8¢ → 66.5¢ | 8,261.9 | 31.8¢ → 66.5¢ | $5,494.19 +$2,869.42 (+109.3%) |
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? No4,559.2 shares75.5¢ → 88.5¢ | 4,559.2 | 75.5¢ → 88.5¢ | $4,034.90 +$592.84 (+17.2%) |
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? No3,509.9 shares78¢ → 100¢ | 3,509.9 | 78¢ → 100¢ | $3,508.16 +$770.81 (+28.2%) |
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes3,571.4 shares91.8¢ → 95.1¢ | 3,571.4 | 91.8¢ → 95.1¢ | $3,394.62 +$116.75 (+3.6%) |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? No3,549.8 shares75.9¢ → 95.5¢ | 3,549.8 | 75.9¢ → 95.5¢ | $3,388.30 +$695.76 (+25.8%) |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No3,903.2 shares56.1¢ → 83.5¢ | 3,903.2 | 56.1¢ → 83.5¢ | $3,259.16 +$1,069.59 (+48.8%) |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes3,418.3 shares51.4¢ → 83.5¢ | 3,418.3 | 51.4¢ → 83.5¢ | $2,854.28 +$1,097.27 (+62.5%) |
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes14,623 shares26.4¢ → 18.5¢ | 14,623 | 26.4¢ → 18.5¢ | $2,705.25 -$1,162.41 (-30.1%) |
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes3,463.8 shares72.3¢ → 76.5¢ | 3,463.8 | 72.3¢ → 76.5¢ | $2,649.80 +$144.19 (+5.8%) |
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes2,679.3 shares95.3¢ → 98.4¢ | 2,679.3 | 95.3¢ → 98.4¢ | $2,636.43 +$82.38 (+3.2%) |
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No2,739.9 shares64.5¢ → 95.9¢ | 2,739.9 | 64.5¢ → 95.9¢ | $2,627.54 +$858.97 (+48.6%) |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? Yes20,774.9 shares11¢ → 10.5¢ | 20,774.9 | 11¢ → 10.5¢ | $2,181.36 -$99.12 (-4.3%) |
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes18,081.8 shares20.2¢ → 11.5¢ | 18,081.8 | 20.2¢ → 11.5¢ | $2,079.41 -$1,566.32 (-43%) |
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes2,473.1 shares58.3¢ → 82.5¢ | 2,473.1 | 58.3¢ → 82.5¢ | $2,040.35 +$598.10 (+41.5%) |
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No2,046.3 shares95.2¢ → 96.1¢ | 2,046.3 | 95.2¢ → 96.1¢ | $1,966.54 +$18.21 (+0.9%) |
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No2,000 shares54.3¢ → 92.5¢ | 2,000 | 54.3¢ → 92.5¢ | $1,850.00 +$765.00 (+70.5%) |
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No2,497.4 shares90.8¢ → 68¢ | 2,497.4 | 90.8¢ → 68¢ | $1,698.26 -$569.41 (-25.1%) |
Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? No1,687.5 shares91.3¢ → 97.1¢ | 1,687.5 | 91.3¢ → 97.1¢ | $1,637.69 +$97.38 (+6.3%) |
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Yes15,593.1 shares24.3¢ → 10.5¢ | 15,593.1 | 24.3¢ → 10.5¢ | $1,637.28 -$2,159.54 (-56.9%) |
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? No1,655.4 shares74.4¢ → 97.5¢ | 1,655.4 | 74.4¢ → 97.5¢ | $1,613.99 +$381.96 (+31%) |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes7,062.5 shares23.1¢ → 22.5¢ | 7,062.5 | 23.1¢ → 22.5¢ | $1,589.07 -$41.56 (-2.5%) |
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes1,603.5 shares3.1¢ → 98.3¢ | 1,603.5 | 3.1¢ → 98.3¢ | $1,575.45 +$1,525.35 (+3,044.1%) |
Will Mailza Assis win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election? Yes1,560 shares3.8¢ → 97.5¢ | 1,560 | 3.8¢ → 97.5¢ | $1,521.00 +$1,461.00 (+2,435%) |
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No1,500 shares94.7¢ → 96.8¢ | 1,500 | 94.7¢ → 96.8¢ | $1,451.25 +$31.25 (+2.2%) |
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No1,350 shares97.1¢ → 99.5¢ | 1,350 | 97.1¢ → 99.5¢ | $1,342.58 +$31.95 (+2.4%) |
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No1,341.6 shares99.4¢ → 99¢ | 1,341.6 | 99.4¢ → 99¢ | $1,327.48 -$6.26 (-0.5%) |
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No1,349.3 shares92.9¢ → 96.7¢ | 1,349.3 | 92.9¢ → 96.7¢ | $1,304.07 +$50.76 (+4.1%) |
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? No2,038.5 shares44.9¢ → 61.5¢ | 2,038.5 | 44.9¢ → 61.5¢ | $1,253.68 +$338.01 (+36.9%) |
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? Yes1,600 shares3.1¢ → 76.5¢ | 1,600 | 3.1¢ → 76.5¢ | $1,223.99 +$1,173.99 (+2,348%) |
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes2,497.5 shares8¢ → 45.5¢ | 2,497.5 | 8¢ → 45.5¢ | $1,136.35 +$936.56 (+468.8%) |
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? Yes2,012.8 shares59.2¢ → 55.4¢ | 2,012.8 | 59.2¢ → 55.4¢ | $1,114.06 -$76.68 (-6.4%) |
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes1,752.9 shares2¢ → 63.1¢ | 1,752.9 | 2¢ → 63.1¢ | $1,105.20 +$1,069.43 (+2,989.6%) |
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes1,531.9 shares79.8¢ → 72¢ | 1,531.9 | 79.8¢ → 72¢ | $1,102.99 -$119.00 (-9.7%) |
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No3,982.7 shares16.6¢ → 27¢ | 3,982.7 | 16.6¢ → 27¢ | $1,075.32 +$415.42 (+63%) |
Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026? Yes1,320.2 shares27.4¢ → 80.5¢ | 1,320.2 | 27.4¢ → 80.5¢ | $1,062.74 +$701.39 (+194.1%) |
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? No1,427.3 shares44.8¢ → 73.5¢ | 1,427.3 | 44.8¢ → 73.5¢ | $1,049.10 +$409.94 (+64.1%) |
Will there be no Gemini Argon release by October 31, 2026? No1,193.9 shares81.5¢ → 84.9¢ | 1,193.9 | 81.5¢ → 84.9¢ | $1,013.58 +$40.38 (+4.1%) |
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes1,101.7 shares10¢ → 91.5¢ | 1,101.7 | 10¢ → 91.5¢ | $1,008.03 +$897.86 (+815%) |
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in October? No1,000 shares94.7¢ → 99.5¢ | 1,000 | 94.7¢ → 99.5¢ | $995.00 +$48.50 (+5.1%) |
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No1,323.7 shares62.1¢ → 74.5¢ | 1,323.7 | 62.1¢ → 74.5¢ | $986.18 +$164.19 (+20%) |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? Yes1,000 shares93¢ → 98¢ | 1,000 | 93¢ → 98¢ | $979.50 +$49.50 (+5.3%) |
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? No1,000 shares87¢ → 93.5¢ | 1,000 | 87¢ → 93.5¢ | $935.00 +$65.00 (+7.5%) |
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes1,720.1 shares63¢ → 54¢ | 1,720.1 | 63¢ → 54¢ | $928.84 -$155.16 (-14.3%) |
OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026? Yes1,328.8 shares67.6¢ → 68.5¢ | 1,328.8 | 67.6¢ → 68.5¢ | $910.23 +$11.44 (+1.3%) |
| Buy | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on October 12? No · 40 shares at 99.3¢ | $39.74 |
| Buy | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on October 12? No · 40 shares at 0.4¢ | $0.16 |
| Buy | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? No · 1.7 shares at 9¢ | $0.16 |
| Buy | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? No · 1.1 shares at 9¢ | $0.10 |
| Buy | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? No · 1.1 shares at 9¢ | $0.10 |
| Merge | $50.00 |
| Convert | $28.56 |
| Convert | $50.00 |
| Convert | $79.96 |
| Convert | $117.60 |
| Convert | $299.72 |
| Convert | $1,833.80 |
| Buy | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? No · 1.1 shares at 9¢ | $0.10 |
| Buy | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? No · 1.1 shares at 9¢ | $0.10 |
| Buy | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? No · 1.1 shares at 9¢ | $0.10 |
| Buy | Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? No · 37.5 shares at 78¢ | $29.24 |
| Buy | Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? Yes · 37.5 shares at 20¢ | $7.73 |
| Buy | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on October 12? No · 28.6 shares at 1.5¢ | $0.43 |
| Buy | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on October 12? No · 28.6 shares at 96.7¢ | $27.66 |
| Buy | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? No · 1.6 shares at 9¢ | $0.15 |
| Buy | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on October 12? No · 20 shares at 53.3¢ | $10.66 |
| Buy | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on October 12? No · 20 shares at 99.5¢ | $19.90 |
| Buy | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 12? No · 20 shares at 59.8¢ | $12.19 |
| Buy | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? No · 1.1 shares at 9¢ | $0.10 |
| Buy | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on October 12? No · 50 shares at 99.6¢ | $49.81 |
| Buy | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 12? No · 50 shares at 0.1¢ | $0.05 |
| Buy | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? No · 1.1 shares at 9¢ | $0.10 |
| Buy | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? No · 1.1 shares at 9¢ | $0.10 |
| Buy | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on October 12? No · 20 shares at 49.7¢ | $9.94 |
| Buy | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on October 12? No · 20 shares at 60.7¢ | $12.14 |
| Buy | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on October 12? No · 40 shares at 62.3¢ | $25.38 |
| Merge | $0.47 |
| Merge | $0.49 |
| Merge | $0.59 |
| Merge | $1.20 |
| Merge | $2.30 |
| Merge | $32.52 |
| Merge | $37.13 |
| Merge | $37.13 |
| Merge | $37.14 |
| Merge | $67.27 |
| Merge | $87.37 |
| Merge | $113.95 |
| Convert | $80.00 |
| Buy | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? No · 20 shares at 13.4¢ | $2.77 |
| Buy | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? Yes · 20 shares at 84.6¢ | $16.92 |
| Buy | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on October 12? No · 60 shares at 63.6¢ | $38.84 |
| Buy | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on October 12? No · 20 shares at 39.1¢ | $7.82 |