
no crazy war, yes peace
$683,770.06
+$1,330,387.82
$509,229,010.39
4,423 markets traded
+$2,107,119.47
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?| Market | Shares | Avg → Now | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No490,000 shares50¢ → 51.2¢ | 490,000 | 50¢ → 51.2¢ | $251,125.00 +$6,125.00 (+2.5%) |
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes490,000 shares50¢ → 48.8¢ | 490,000 | 50¢ → 48.8¢ | $238,875.00 -$6,125.00 |
Public on-chain data from Polymarket. Showing up to 50 positions and recent activity; refreshes every minute.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No33,333 shares99.5¢ → 99.4¢ | 33,333 | 99.5¢ → 99.4¢ | $33,116.34 -$49.97 (-0.2%) |
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No26,991.9 shares82.1¢ → 94.5¢ | 26,991.9 | 82.1¢ → 94.5¢ | $25,507.33 +$3,334.56 (+15%) |
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No22,109 shares94.4¢ → 96.4¢ | 22,109 | 94.4¢ → 96.4¢ | $21,302.02 +$423.72 (+2%) |
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes14,919.4 shares83.8¢ → 86.6¢ | 14,919.4 | 83.8¢ → 86.6¢ | $12,912.78 +$410.24 (+3.3%) |
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No10,776.7 shares91¢ → 94.5¢ | 10,776.7 | 91¢ → 94.5¢ | $10,184.01 +$377.19 (+3.8%) |
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No104,564.4 shares10.1¢ → 9.5¢ | 104,564.4 | 10.1¢ → 9.5¢ | $9,933.62 -$661.47 (-6.2%) |
Plague pandemic in 2026? No8,888 shares95.1¢ → 97.8¢ | 8,888 | 95.1¢ → 97.8¢ | $8,692.46 +$239.98 (+2.8%) |
New pandemic in 2026? No7,777 shares87.6¢ → 95.5¢ | 7,777 | 87.6¢ → 95.5¢ | $7,427.02 +$616.62 (+9.1%) |
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No6,716 shares96.3¢ → 98.5¢ | 6,716 | 96.3¢ → 98.5¢ | $6,611.91 +$146.83 (+2.3%) |
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No5,240 shares90¢ → 90.5¢ | 5,240 | 90¢ → 90.5¢ | $4,742.17 +$26.21 (+0.6%) |
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No4,120.3 shares93.2¢ → 97.8¢ | 4,120.3 | 93.2¢ → 97.8¢ | $4,027.61 +$186.94 (+4.9%) |
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No5,555 shares71¢ → 68.5¢ | 5,555 | 71¢ → 68.5¢ | $3,805.14 -$138.87 (-3.5%) |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes28,842.5 shares13.7¢ → 12.5¢ | 28,842.5 | 13.7¢ → 12.5¢ | $3,605.32 -$354.38 (-8.9%) |
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No3,362.4 shares95.8¢ → 97.1¢ | 3,362.4 | 95.8¢ → 97.1¢ | $3,264.89 +$44.58 (+1.4%) |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes3,986 shares44.6¢ → 80.5¢ | 3,986 | 44.6¢ → 80.5¢ | $3,208.71 +$1,429.13 (+80.3%) |
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes26,041 shares8.5¢ → 9.5¢ | 26,041 | 8.5¢ → 9.5¢ | $2,473.89 +$263.85 (+11.9%) |
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? Yes8,840 shares9¢ → 21.5¢ | 8,840 | 9¢ → 21.5¢ | $1,900.61 +$1,105.01 (+138.9%) |
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No4,688.8 shares51¢ → 38.6¢ | 4,688.8 | 51¢ → 38.6¢ | $1,807.52 -$584.45 (-24.4%) |
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No1,814.4 shares94.7¢ → 99.4¢ | 1,814.4 | 94.7¢ → 99.4¢ | $1,802.59 +$83.82 (+4.9%) |
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes18,511.6 shares10.5¢ → 9.5¢ | 18,511.6 | 10.5¢ → 9.5¢ | $1,758.61 -$188.28 (-9.7%) |
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No1,669.9 shares92¢ → 96.5¢ | 1,669.9 | 92¢ → 96.5¢ | $1,611.43 +$75.15 (+4.9%) |
Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No1,424 shares89.5¢ → 96.2¢ | 1,424 | 89.5¢ → 96.2¢ | $1,369.18 +$94.49 (+7.4%) |
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Yes39,511.9 shares6¢ → 3.3¢ | 39,511.9 | 6¢ → 3.3¢ | $1,303.89 -$1,057.26 (-44.8%) |
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes432,227.1 shares0.7¢ → 0.3¢ | 432,227.1 | 0.7¢ → 0.3¢ | $1,296.68 -$1,899.21 (-59.4%) |
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes1,552.8 shares77.9¢ → 79.5¢ | 1,552.8 | 77.9¢ → 79.5¢ | $1,234.49 +$24.78 (+2%) |
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No1,550.7 shares65¢ → 75.5¢ | 1,550.7 | 65¢ → 75.5¢ | $1,170.78 +$162.82 (+16.2%) |
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House No1,111 shares98.7¢ → 99.1¢ | 1,111 | 98.7¢ → 99.1¢ | $1,100.45 +$3.89 (+0.4%) |
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No1,131.1 shares75.9¢ → 91.5¢ | 1,131.1 | 75.9¢ → 91.5¢ | $1,034.96 +$175.93 (+20.5%) |
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No2,220.3 shares55.2¢ → 46.3¢ | 2,220.3 | 55.2¢ → 46.3¢ | $1,027.98 -$197.60 (-16.1%) |
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No1,111 shares58¢ → 82¢ | 1,111 | 58¢ → 82¢ | $911.02 +$266.64 (+41.4%) |
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes25,974 shares6.5¢ → 3.4¢ | 25,974 | 6.5¢ → 3.4¢ | $883.12 -$796.15 (-47.4%) |
Iran leadership change by December 31? No967.5 shares70.5¢ → 89.5¢ | 967.5 | 70.5¢ → 89.5¢ | $865.89 +$183.82 (+27%) |
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes13,940 shares6.9¢ → 6.1¢ | 13,940 | 6.9¢ → 6.1¢ | $843.37 -$118.96 (-12.4%) |
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No843.5 shares81.5¢ → 97.4¢ | 843.5 | 81.5¢ → 97.4¢ | $821.11 +$133.98 (+19.5%) |
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No859.3 shares70¢ → 91.5¢ | 859.3 | 70¢ → 91.5¢ | $786.27 +$184.75 (+30.7%) |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? Yes7,776.9 shares9.7¢ → 9.5¢ | 7,776.9 | 9.7¢ → 9.5¢ | $738.81 -$16.57 (-2.2%) |
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes1,111.1 shares60¢ → 61.5¢ | 1,111.1 | 60¢ → 61.5¢ | $683.31 +$16.67 (+2.5%) |
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No793 shares73.1¢ → 83.8¢ | 793 | 73.1¢ → 83.8¢ | $664.16 +$84.18 (+14.5%) |
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? No723.6 shares54.6¢ → 88¢ | 723.6 | 54.6¢ → 88¢ | $636.73 +$241.53 (+61.1%) |
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes4,444 shares6.5¢ → 14.2¢ | 4,444 | 6.5¢ → 14.2¢ | $633.27 +$344.41 (+119.2%) |
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes1,914.4 shares28.7¢ → 31.7¢ | 1,914.4 | 28.7¢ → 31.7¢ | $605.92 +$56.74 (+10.3%) |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No602.4 shares77¢ → 77.5¢ | 602.4 | 77¢ → 77.5¢ | $466.83 +$3.01 (+0.6%) |
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No3,493.7 shares27.3¢ → 12.2¢ | 3,493.7 | 27.3¢ → 12.2¢ | $426.23 -$526.58 (-55.3%) |
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No444 shares51¢ → 93.5¢ | 444 | 51¢ → 93.5¢ | $415.14 +$188.70 (+83.3%) |
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes6,309 shares34.6¢ → 6.5¢ | 6,309 | 34.6¢ → 6.5¢ | $410.08 -$1,770.29 (-81.2%) |
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes802.7 shares26.3¢ → 46.5¢ | 802.7 | 26.3¢ → 46.5¢ | $373.25 +$161.86 (+76.6%) |
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes1,126.3 shares20¢ → 28.5¢ | 1,126.3 | 20¢ → 28.5¢ | $321.00 +$95.74 (+42.5%) |
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes281.7 shares89¢ → 96.1¢ | 281.7 | 89¢ → 96.1¢ | $270.53 +$19.78 (+7.9%) |
Yes · 50 shares at 8¢
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