Geopolitics

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 16>99%
- October 1798%
$13.8M Vol.monthly

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1896%
October 2194%

$35.4M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3159%
December 3135%

$40.7M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$655.7K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

<1%chance

$2.7M Vol.15 days left

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot47%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$46.8M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.3M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$432.6K Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202726%
December 3113%

$27.4M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 18>99%
October 2199%

$2.0M Vol.

$2.0M Vol.

Israel military action against Syria by...?

November 3031%
October 3120%

$156.9K Vol.

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

CXMT31%
CATL18%

$604.8K Vol.

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

3%chance

$14.9M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.8M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3142%
November 3024%

$1.5M Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3113%
November 307%

$20.0M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202764%

$8.7M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

12%chance

$14.9M Vol.2 months left

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez23%

$98.3M Vol.

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

October 599%
October 896%

$115.4K Vol.monthly

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 319%
October 311%

$76.1M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$279.3K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

77%chance

$302.8K Vol.18 days left

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3124%
October 317%

$9.1M Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202721%
December 3112%

$4.9M Vol.

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

2%chance

$41.0K Vol.15 days left

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

11%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$29.3M Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

21%chance

$202.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?

March 31, 202723%
December 319%

$286.1K Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3129%
November 3026%

$372.0K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

5%chance

$836.1K Vol.45 days left

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3114%
November 3010%

$17.0M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

10%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left