Economy

152 events

Fed Decision in October?
- No change81%
- 25 bps increase20%
$35.0M Vol.monthly

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Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change22%

$3.2M Vol.monthly

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA81%
Apple15%

$8.2M Vol.monthly

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.7M Vol.2 months left

Fed Decision in January?

No change67%
25 bps increase30%

$418.6K Vol.monthly

September Inflation US - Annual

3.6%44%
3.7%37%

$243.4K Vol.monthly

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change91%
25 bps increase11%

$576.1K Vol.annual

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA94%
Apple5%

$290.3K Vol.monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)96%
1 (25 bps)2%

$54.1M Vol.

September Inflation US - Monthly

0.6%53%
0.5%28%

$84.2K Vol.monthly

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

80%chance

$657.6K Vol.57 days left

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 5.20%36%
Below 5.15%26%

$69.0K Vol.

3rd Largest Company end of October?

Alphabet79%
Microsoft21%

$57.1K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike65%
Hike–Pause–Pause20%

$294.0K Vol.daily

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

25 bps decrease90%
No Change5%

$56.9K Vol.annual

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple90%
NVIDIA8%

$28.7K Vol.monthly

Core CPI MoM - September 2026

0.2%51%
0.3%31%

$63.1K Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change82%
25 bps increase18%

$114.0K Vol.annual

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change84%
25 bps increase15%

$172.7K Vol.annual

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%61%
5.5%33%

$972.1K Vol.weekly

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change89%
Decrease12%

$77.9K Vol.annual

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

3.0 - 3.5M28%
2.5 - 3.0M27%

$115.5K Vol.monthly

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change97%
25 bps increase3%

$201.2K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

<$397K42%
$407K - $417K19%

$18.8K Vol.monthly

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

3.0-3.4%39%
3.5-3.9%32%

$62.4K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%16%
Below 4.6%6%

$353.8K Vol.

September Inflation China - Annual

0.9% to 1.0%>99%
0.7% to 0.8%<1%

$44.0K Vol.monthly

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+59%
2.6-2.7M20%

$44.9K Vol.monthly

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.0% to 0.2%30%
-0.3% to -0.1%26%

$35.7K Vol.annual

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting53%
June 2027 Meeting37%

$3.8M Vol.

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause59%
Pause-Hike-Hike11%

$33.4K Vol.daily

Bank of Russia decision in December?

No change63%
25 bps decrease31%

$10.8K Vol.annual

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$37.8K Vol.monthly

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%47%
5.50-5.99%30%

$162.5K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.32%53%
5.35%51%

$25.9K Vol.weekly

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M61%
270M6%

$32.7K Vol.monthly

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

52%chance

$17.5K Vol.2 months left

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%72%
4.6-4.9%14%

$67.3K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

$407K - $411K30%
$403K - $407K19%

$18.2K Vol.monthly

$30.7K Vol.monthly

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase92%
No change10%

$306.2K Vol.annual

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.18%69%
Below 5.12%47%

$13.7K Vol.weekly

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

November 3072%
October 3167%

$5.9K Vol.

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

Santander5%
RBC3%

$82.5K Vol.monthly

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change74%
25 bps increase24%

$35.9K Vol.

What will be in the UK Budget?

CGT increase44%
Fuel duty increase28%

$11.7K Vol.

Core CPI YoY - September 2026

2.4%44%
2.5%35%

$48.7K Vol.monthly

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%67%
2.5–3.0%16%

$54.3K Vol.monthly

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.90%55%
5.10%46%

$16.1K Vol.

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change55%
25 bps increase43%

$41.2K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change70%
25 bps increase25%

$9.7K Vol.annual

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%65%
5.80%45%

$211.2K Vol.

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.55%74%
Below 5.52%61%

$13.7K Vol.

Price of Dozen Eggs in September?

$2.20 to $2.3056%
$2.10 to $2.2030%

$33.4K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?

<$503K41%
$519K - $521K19%

$18.2K Vol.monthly

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$900B-$1.00T38%
$1.00-$1.10T33%

$11.2K Vol.monthly

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

54.0 to 54.924%
53.0 to 53.922%

$11.6K Vol.monthly

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change93%
Decrease7%

$60.6K Vol.annual

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9%78%
2.0-2.4%20%

$57.6K Vol.

India Annual Inflation 2026

4.50%+97%
3.75% to 4.49%<1%

$102.0K Vol.

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.4–0.5%40%
0.2–0.3%31%

$34.9K Vol.monthly

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

2.7% to 2.9%46%
3.0%+39%

$55.4K Vol.

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.86%55%
Below 4.95%52%

$10.5K Vol.

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%81%
↑ 4.5%12%

$1.9M Vol.

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8K Vol.2 months left

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%49%
1.1 – 1.5%26%

$112.6K Vol.

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.2 to 0.3%47%
0.0 to 0.1%32%

$27.9K Vol.monthly

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

0.8%–1.6%26%
0.0%–0.8%24%

$43.2K Vol.annual

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines42%
Anduril20%

$214.9K Vol.

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

No change76%
25 bps decrease20%

$53.9K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?

$497K - $510K31%
$445K - $458K20%

$10.6K Vol.monthly

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.11%52%
5.08%47%

$15.6K Vol.

Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?

770M>99%
780M98%

$3.4K Vol.

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4%84%
2.5-2.9%9%

$75.8K Vol.

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%85%
5.25%39%

$101.2K Vol.

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.70%39%
5.73%38%

$19.4K Vol.

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

8%chance

$122.1K Vol.2 months left

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.73%62%
Below 4.70%60%

$6.0K Vol.

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

↑ 7.50%72%
↓ 6.50%13%

$98.7K Vol.

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

1.0-2.0%48%
0-1.0%45%

$57.7K Vol.monthly

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+91%
32M+86%

$33.7K Vol.monthly

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

25 bps increase75%
No change20%

$33.3K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.062M25%
$1.083M - $1.104M21%

$12.4K Vol.monthly

JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026

7.4M+32%
<6.8M25%

$14.0K Vol.monthly

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

3.50% to 3.99%58%
4.00% to 4.49%15%

$84.5K Vol.

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3114%
November 307%

$10.3K Vol.

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Alphabet60%
Microsoft29%

$69.8K Vol.monthly

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

4.86%79%
4.89%69%

$10.7K Vol.

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

77%chance

$2.2K Vol.8 months left

What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on December 31?

$323K - $327K23%
$327K+22%

$14.8K Vol.monthly

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

>5.0%77%
4.7-5.0%13%

$92.2K Vol.

Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?

2.5-3.0%27%
2.0-2.5%26%

$47.8K Vol.annual

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October 2026

43.0 to 45.946%
46.0 to 48.944%

$26.4K Vol.monthly

Bank of Korea decision in October?

No Change96%
25 bps hike4%

$38.6K Vol.annual

PPI YoY - September 2026

5.9%+32%
5.7%21%

$28.4K Vol.monthly

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

25 bps decrease56%
50+ bps decrease26%

$24.2K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.115M36%
$1.115M - $1.126M20%

$17.1K Vol.monthly

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3116%
November 306%

$23.7K Vol.

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

43%chance

$2.1K Vol.2 months left

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5%13%
Above 5%9%

$1.5M Vol.

Core PCE YoY - September 2026

3.0%33%
3.1%27%

$14.5K Vol.monthly

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.70%77%
Below 4.60%60%

$12.7K Vol.

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.50%16%
Below 4.45%10%

$84.9K Vol.

Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026

0.8-1.1%56%
1.2-1.5%31%

$68.5K Vol.annual

ISM Services PMI - October 2026

53.0 to 53.923%
54.0 to 54.919%

$13.9K Vol.monthly

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

1-2%90%
0-1%7%

$111.7K Vol.

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

22%chance

$27.1K Vol.2 months left

EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?

30M+86%
31M+79%

$39.9K Vol.monthly

OPEC dissolves in 2026?

2%chance

$42.4K Vol.2 months left

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase52%
No change43%

$93.5K Vol.annual

US economic state at the end of 2026?

$102.6K Vol.

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

43%chance

$4.1K Vol.18 days left

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

1.2m57%
1.3m14%

$188.0K Vol.

How many jobs added in October?

100k+30%
50k to 75k18%

$21.2K Vol.monthly

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026? (Higher Brackets)

<1600.0047%
1600.00–1699.9936%

$22.4K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in Miami be on December 31?

$788K - $809K25%
$809K - $830K24%

$11.1K Vol.monthly

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

12%chance

$12.6K Vol.2 months left

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%95%
5.0–6.0%4%

$931.3K Vol.

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026

30.0-34.9%64%
25-29.9%32%

$79.9K Vol.monthly

Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?

9%chance

$2.3K Vol.2 months left

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

25 bps increase57%
No change36%

$38.9K Vol.annual

Core PCE MoM - September 2026

0.2%36%
0.3%27%

$12.2K Vol.monthly

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

23%chance

$1.6K Vol.2 months left

Reserve Bank of India decision in December

25 bps increase66%
No Change18%

$10.8K Vol.monthly

GDP growth in 2026

2.0–2.5%51%
>2.5%49%

$88.5K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

72%chance

$27.6K Vol.2 months left

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

4%chance

$245.0K Vol.2 months left

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026?

1600.00+46%
1550.00–1599.9932%

$12.0K Vol.monthly

2026 World GDP Growth

3.1%30%
3.0%29%

$76.3K Vol.

Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?

27%chance

$1.1K Vol.1 year left

US recession by end of 2027?

34%chance

$10.9K Vol.1 year left

Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?

3%chance

$94.7K Vol.2 months left

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

14%chance

$30.9K Vol.2 months left

Central Bank of Chile decision in October

No change92%
25 bps decrease5%

$10.2K Vol.monthly

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

98%chance

$58.8K Vol.2 months left

Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?

1.3%+45%
1.0-1.2%41%

$63.3K Vol.annual

Bank of Korea decision in November?

No Change50%
25 bps hike43%

$32.6K Vol.annual

South African Reserve Bank Decision in November?

No Change74%
50+ bps decrease34%

$0.0 Vol.annual

Central Bank of Colombia decision in October

No change66%
25 bps increase31%

$35.9K Vol.annual

US announces another yen intervention by...?

40%chance

$0.0 Vol.2 months left

Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

5%chance

$823.5 Vol.2 months left

Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?

2%chance

$30.3K Vol.2 months left

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20262%

$49.3K Vol.

JPMorgan (JPM) closes at $1T+ market cap by…?

December 3116%
October 319%

$15.2K Vol.

USMCA extended in 2026?

10%chance

$11.5K Vol.2 months left

Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31?

50%chance

$28.9 Vol.2 months left

Will McCormick merge with Unilever Foods by...?

December 31, 202754%
June 30, 202749%

$636.2 Vol.

Japan recession in 2026?

5%chance

$4.3K Vol.6 months left

UK Recession in 2026?

7%chance

$15.6K Vol.6 months left

Economy

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

US recession by end of 2026?

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

OPEC dissolves in 2026?

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?

US recession by end of 2027?

Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

US announces another yen intervention by...?

Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?