
Portwatch Villain.
$94,065.99
+$123,860.59
$8,318,838.69
2,458 markets traded
+$11,146.91
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz betwe…| Market | Shares | Avg → Now | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes123,186.6 shares14¢ → 12.5¢ | 123,186.6 | 14¢ → 12.5¢ | $15,398.33 -$1,847.68 (-10.7%) |
| Type | Market | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Redeem | $14,000.00 | |
| Maker rebate | — | $24.66 |
| Buy | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers · 14,000 shares at 50¢ |
Public on-chain data from Polymarket. Showing up to 50 positions and recent activity; refreshes every minute.
| 11,308.5 |
| 89.8¢ → 95.1¢ |
$10,754.41 +$600.38 (+5.9%) |
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes13,776.3 shares65¢ → 69.2¢ | 13,776.3 | 65¢ → 69.2¢ | $9,526.28 +$567.56 (+6.3%) |
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes13,513.6 shares64¢ → 61.5¢ | 13,513.6 | 64¢ → 61.5¢ | $8,310.89 -$337.81 (-3.9%) |
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? Yes7,233.8 shares90.4¢ → 88.7¢ | 7,233.8 | 90.4¢ → 88.7¢ | $6,416.42 -$125.52 (-1.9%) |
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No7,583.2 shares73¢ → 74.5¢ | 7,583.2 | 73¢ → 74.5¢ | $5,649.51 +$113.80 (+2.1%) |
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? Yes5,608.8 shares79.8¢ → 90.5¢ | 5,608.8 | 79.8¢ → 90.5¢ | $5,075.96 +$598.86 (+13.4%) |
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No4,000 shares78¢ → 83.9¢ | 4,000 | 78¢ → 83.9¢ | $3,356.00 +$236.00 (+7.6%) |
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? No3,119.9 shares99.9¢ → 99.3¢ | 3,119.9 | 99.9¢ → 99.3¢ | $3,098.03 -$18.72 (-0.6%) |
Ravens vs. Falcons Ravens2,989.8 shares40¢ → 100¢ | 2,989.8 | 40¢ → 100¢ | $2,988.29 +$1,792.38 (+149.9%) |
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes5,000 shares70¢ → 58.5¢ | 5,000 | 70¢ → 58.5¢ | $2,925.00 -$575.00 (-16.4%) |
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes4,604.2 shares30.1¢ → 51.9¢ | 4,604.2 | 30.1¢ → 51.9¢ | $2,391.89 +$1,005.24 (+72.5%) |
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? No3,036 shares60.3¢ → 73.5¢ | 3,036 | 60.3¢ → 73.5¢ | $2,231.46 +$399.62 (+21.8%) |
US recession by end of 2026? No2,000.5 shares82¢ → 93.5¢ | 2,000.5 | 82¢ → 93.5¢ | $1,870.50 +$230.06 (+14%) |
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? Yes2,666.2 shares57.8¢ → 57.5¢ | 2,666.2 | 57.8¢ → 57.5¢ | $1,533.06 -$8.89 (-0.6%) |
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes5,839.9 shares48.2¢ → 23.5¢ | 5,839.9 | 48.2¢ → 23.5¢ | $1,372.37 -$1,443.89 (-51.3%) |
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? No5,483.6 shares19.3¢ → 22.5¢ | 5,483.6 | 19.3¢ → 22.5¢ | $1,233.82 +$175.64 (+16.6%) |
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes1,857.2 shares67.9¢ → 63.5¢ | 1,857.2 | 67.9¢ → 63.5¢ | $1,179.33 -$81.58 (-6.5%) |
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes1,006.1 shares72¢ → 80.5¢ | 1,006.1 | 72¢ → 80.5¢ | $809.91 +$85.65 (+11.8%) |
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes1,107.5 shares60.4¢ → 71.6¢ | 1,107.5 | 60.4¢ → 71.6¢ | $792.39 +$123.48 (+18.5%) |
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No930 shares77.9¢ → 84.5¢ | 930 | 77.9¢ → 84.5¢ | $785.87 +$60.92 (+8.4%) |
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes1,098.8 shares73.5¢ → 70.5¢ | 1,098.8 | 73.5¢ → 70.5¢ | $774.68 -$33.23 (-4.1%) |
Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m? Yes772.7 shares45¢ → 98¢ | 772.7 | 45¢ → 98¢ | $756.87 +$409.53 (+117.9%) |
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No1,578.1 shares66.4¢ → 43.5¢ | 1,578.1 | 66.4¢ → 43.5¢ | $686.47 -$360.64 (-34.4%) |
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? Yes521.1 shares90.1¢ → 97.9¢ | 521.1 | 90.1¢ → 97.9¢ | $509.93 +$40.26 (+8.6%) |
Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m? No492.9 shares69.9¢ → 98.5¢ | 492.9 | 69.9¢ → 98.5¢ | $485.27 +$140.65 (+40.8%) |
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes797.1 shares41¢ → 55.5¢ | 797.1 | 41¢ → 55.5¢ | $442.38 +$115.58 (+35.4%) |
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31? Yes421.3 shares86.9¢ → 93.9¢ | 421.3 | 86.9¢ → 93.9¢ | $395.63 +$29.32 (+8%) |
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? Yes354 shares52.6¢ → 89.5¢ | 354 | 52.6¢ → 89.5¢ | $316.79 +$130.45 (+70%) |
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31? No306 shares83¢ → 99.5¢ | 306 | 83¢ → 99.5¢ | $304.47 +$50.55 (+19.9%) |
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No481.9 shares67.2¢ → 59.5¢ | 481.9 | 67.2¢ → 59.5¢ | $286.72 -$37.31 (-11.5%) |
Will "Digger" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m? Yes264.1 shares55¢ → 97.9¢ | 264.1 | 55¢ → 97.9¢ | $258.41 +$113.16 (+77.9%) |
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? No302.9 shares75¢ → 82.6¢ | 302.9 | 75¢ → 82.6¢ | $250.08 +$22.96 (+10.1%) |
Will Trump nationalize elections? No272.4 shares62.4¢ → 91¢ | 272.4 | 62.4¢ → 91¢ | $247.88 +$77.87 (+45.8%) |
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31? Yes5,354.9 shares38.1¢ → 3.6¢ | 5,354.9 | 38.1¢ → 3.6¢ | $192.77 -$1,848.26 (-90.6%) |
Will "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 15m? No188.8 shares81.2¢ → 100¢ | 188.8 | 81.2¢ → 100¢ | $188.71 +$35.31 (+23%) |
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 170m and 180m by October 31? No115 shares86.6¢ → 100¢ | 115 | 86.6¢ → 100¢ | $114.94 +$15.36 (+15.4%) |
Will "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? No70 shares70.7¢ → 98.8¢ | 70 | 70.7¢ → 98.8¢ | $69.13 +$19.63 (+39.6%) |
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? No686.5 shares64.7¢ → 9.5¢ | 686.5 | 64.7¢ → 9.5¢ | $65.22 -$379.20 (-85.3%) |
Will "Resident Evil" 4th Weekend Box Office be at least 7m? Yes20 shares90¢ → 99.7¢ | 20 | 90¢ → 99.7¢ | $19.93 +$1.93 (+10.7%) |
Spread: San Jose State (-4.5) San Jose State1,454 shares38.4¢ → 0¢ | 1,454 | 38.4¢ → 0¢ | $0.00 -$558.64 (-100%) |
Spread: Pittsburgh (-5.5) Pittsburgh3,555.4 shares57¢ → 0¢ | 3,555.4 | 57¢ → 0¢ | $0.00 -$2,026.56 (-100%) |
USC vs. Penn State Penn State10,428.3 shares50¢ → 0¢ | 10,428.3 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0.00 -$5,214.14 (-100%) |
Florida State vs. Louisville Florida State161.7 shares51¢ → 0¢ | 161.7 | 51¢ → 0¢ | $0.00 -$82.45 (-100%) |
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes5 shares13.3¢ → 0¢ | 5 | 13.3¢ → 0¢ | $0.00 -$0.67 (-100%) |
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs G2 Esports13,489.3 shares42.4¢ → 0¢ | 13,489.3 | 42.4¢ → 0¢ | $0.00 -$5,724.22 (-100%) |
Georgia vs. Alabama Alabama7,000 shares55¢ → 0¢ | 7,000 | 55¢ → 0¢ | $0.00 -$3,850.00 (-100%) |
Browns vs. Jets Browns7,142.9 shares28¢ → 0¢ | 7,142.9 | 28¢ → 0¢ | $0.00 -$1,999.99 (-100%) |
Penguins vs. Blue Jackets Penguins2,000 shares49¢ → 0¢ | 2,000 | 49¢ → 0¢ | $0.00 -$980.00 (-100%) |
Lions vs. Cardinals: O/U 54.5 Under14,000 shares50¢ → 0¢ | 14,000 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0.00 -$7,000.00 (-100%) |
$7,175.00 |
| Buy | Ravens vs. Falcons Ravens · 2,989.8 shares at 40¢ | $1,217.44 |
| Reward | — | $0.21 |
| Yield | — | $0.74 |
| Taker rebate | — | $28.05 |
| Redeem | $9,999.80 |
| Reward | — | $17.03 |
| Buy | Spread: Broncos (-3.5) Chargers · 7,423.4 shares at 37¢ | $2,746.66 |
| Buy | Spread: Broncos (-3.5) Chargers · 1.6 shares at 37¢ | $0.59 |
| Buy | Spread: Broncos (-3.5) Chargers · 2,575 shares at 37¢ | $970.76 |
| Buy | Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? No · 3,119.9 shares at 99.9¢ | $3,116.91 |
| Buy | Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? Yes · 521.1 shares at 90.1¢ | $471.98 |
| Buy | Kraken vs. Capitals Kraken · 1,144 shares at 35¢ | $400.40 |
| Buy | Kraken vs. Capitals Kraken · 2,035.6 shares at 35¢ | $712.47 |
| Buy | Kraken vs. Capitals Kraken · 31.5 shares at 35¢ | $11.02 |
| Buy | Kraken vs. Capitals Kraken · 5.2 shares at 35¢ | $1.80 |
| Buy | Kraken vs. Capitals Kraken · 9.5 shares at 35¢ | $3.32 |
| Buy | Kraken vs. Capitals Kraken · 7 shares at 35¢ | $2.47 |
| Buy | Kraken vs. Capitals Kraken · 409.6 shares at 35¢ | $143.37 |
| Buy | Kraken vs. Capitals Kraken · 5,906 shares at 35¢ | $2,067.10 |
| Buy | Kraken vs. Capitals Kraken · 23 shares at 35¢ | $8.05 |
| Buy | Kraken vs. Capitals Kraken · 92.3 shares at 35¢ | $32.31 |
| Buy | Kraken vs. Capitals Kraken · 20 shares at 35¢ | $7.00 |
| Buy | Kraken vs. Capitals Kraken · 33 shares at 35¢ | $11.55 |
| Buy | Kraken vs. Capitals Kraken · 31.1 shares at 35¢ | $10.89 |
| Buy | Kraken vs. Capitals Kraken · 15.4 shares at 35¢ | $5.38 |
| Buy | Kraken vs. Capitals Kraken · 236.6 shares at 35¢ | $85.49 |
| Buy | Browns vs. Jets Browns · 7,142.9 shares at 28¢ | $2,043.20 |
| Redeem | $9,433.96 |
| Buy | Lions vs. Cardinals: O/U 54.5 Under · 14,000 shares at 50¢ | $7,105.00 |
| Buy | Eagles vs. Jaguars Jaguars · 9,434 shares at 53¢ | $5,070.50 |
| Redeem | $854.17 |
| Redeem | $10,000.00 |
| Buy | Ducks vs. Flames Ducks · 10,000 shares at 68¢ | $6,908.80 |
| Sell | USC vs. Penn State Penn State · 4,571.7 shares at 0.9¢ | $41.15 |
| Maker rebate | — | $1.15 |
| Reward | — | $0.20 |
| Yield | — | $0.74 |
| Taker rebate | — | $46.59 |
| Reward | — | $14.56 |
| Buy | Georgia vs. Alabama Alabama · 7,000 shares at 55¢ | $3,901.98 |
| Buy | USC vs. Penn State Penn State · 15,000 shares at 50¢ | $7,612.50 |
| Buy | Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31? Yes · 421.3 shares at 86.9¢ | $368.70 |
| Buy | Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m? Yes · 598.2 shares at 39¢ | $240.42 |
| Redeem | $5,202.00 |
| Redeem | $221.81 |
| Buy | Spread: Indiana (-6.5) Nebraska · 5,202 shares at 56¢ | $2,951.57 |
| Buy | Spread: Pittsburgh (-5.5) Pittsburgh · 3,555.4 shares at 57¢ | $2,052.70 |