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Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
View all outcomes in this event3%chance
- Yes3.1%
Outcomes
- Yes3%
3.1¢ per share
- No97%
96.9¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 3.1¢Spread 0.4¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2.9¢ | 47.77 | $1.39 |
| 2.8¢ | 1,384.74 | $38.77 |
| 2.7¢ | 4,821.92 | $130.19 |
| 2.6¢ | 40 | $1.04 |
| 2.5¢ | 20 | $0.50 |
| 2.3¢ | 324.2 | $7.46 |
| 2.2¢ | 412.1 | $9.07 |
| 2.1¢ | 2,322 | $48.76 |
| 2¢ | 3,453 | $69.06 |
| 1.9¢ | 3,412.59 | $64.84 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3¢ | 264 | $8.71 |
| 3.4¢ | 710 | $24.14 |
| 3.5¢ | 1,000 | $35.00 |
| 3.6¢ | 20 | $0.72 |
| 3.7¢ | 322.32 | $11.93 |
| 4¢ | 3,881.73 | $155.27 |
| 4.1¢ | 3,208.25 | $131.54 |
| 4.3¢ | 390 | $16.77 |
| 4.6¢ | 5 | $0.23 |
| 4.8¢ | 1,692.24 | $81.23 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.