All markets
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?
View all outcomes in this event3%chance
- Yes2.9%
Outcomes
- Yes3%
2.9¢ per share
- No97%
97.1¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 2.9¢Spread 1.2¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2.3¢ | 85.97 | $1.98 |
| 2.2¢ | 100 | $2.20 |
| 1.9¢ | 400 | $7.60 |
| 1.6¢ | 246.49 | $3.94 |
| 1.4¢ | 5,076.29 | $71.07 |
| 1.3¢ | 2,188.43 | $28.45 |
| 0.6¢ | 800 | $4.80 |
| 0.5¢ | 66.49 | $0.33 |
| 0.4¢ | 8,655.51 | $34.62 |
| 0.3¢ | 4,007.46 | $12.02 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5¢ | 164.8 | $5.77 |
| 3.6¢ | 200 | $7.20 |
| 3.8¢ | 2,000 | $76.00 |
| 3.9¢ | 1,600 | $62.40 |
| 4¢ | 2,383.33 | $95.33 |
| 4.2¢ | 208.76 | $8.77 |
| 4.3¢ | 2,076 | $89.27 |
| 4.5¢ | 618.84 | $27.85 |
| 5.5¢ | 211.64 | $11.64 |
| 7¢ | 972.14 | $68.05 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.