All markets
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?
75%chance
- Yes78%
Outcomes
- Yes75%
KES 96.75 per share
- No25%
KES 32.25 per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint KES 96.75Spread KES 2.58
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| KES 95.46 | 62.5 | KES 5,966.25 |
| KES 94.17 | 125.62 | KES 11,829.64 |
| KES 91.59 | 68.91 | KES 6,311.47 |
| KES 86.43 | 90 | KES 7,778.70 |
| KES 85.14 | 51.1 | KES 4,350.65 |
| KES 83.85 | 230 | KES 19,285.50 |
| KES 74.82 | 40.5 | KES 3,030.21 |
| KES 73.53 | 180 | KES 13,235.40 |
| KES 52.89 | 40.5 | KES 2,142.05 |
| KES 51.60 | 180 | KES 9,288.00 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| KES 98.04 | 78.85 | KES 7,730.45 |
| KES 99.33 | 185 | KES 18,376.05 |
| KES 100.62 | 21 | KES 2,113.02 |
| KES 101.91 | 48.91 | KES 4,984.42 |
| KES 103.20 | 117.5 | KES 12,126.00 |
| KES 104.49 | 865 | KES 90,383.85 |
| KES 112.23 | 300 | KES 33,669.00 |
| KES 118.68 | 6.47 | KES 767.86 |
| KES 119.97 | 50 | KES 5,998.50 |
| KES 122.55 | 80 | KES 9,804.00 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.