All markets
US imports Russian diesel by December 31?
33%chance
- Yes33%
Outcomes
- Yes33%
KES 42.57 per share
- No67%
KES 86.43 per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint KES 42.57Spread KES 2.58
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| KES 41.28 | 299.42 | KES 12,360.06 |
| KES 39.99 | 400 | KES 15,996.00 |
| KES 38.70 | 668.67 | KES 25,877.53 |
| KES 37.41 | 301 | KES 11,260.41 |
| KES 36.12 | 100 | KES 3,612.00 |
| KES 33.54 | 100 | KES 3,354.00 |
| KES 30.96 | 7.09 | KES 219.51 |
| KES 14.19 | 30 | KES 425.70 |
| KES 12.90 | 110 | KES 1,419.00 |
| KES 11.61 | 85.26 | KES 989.87 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| KES 43.86 | 185.75 | KES 8,147.00 |
| KES 45.15 | 156 | KES 7,043.40 |
| KES 46.44 | 951.78 | KES 44,200.66 |
| KES 47.73 | 535.13 | KES 25,541.75 |
| KES 49.02 | 50 | KES 2,451.00 |
| KES 50.31 | 200 | KES 10,062.00 |
| KES 51.60 | 202 | KES 10,423.20 |
| KES 60.63 | 9.09 | KES 551.13 |
| KES 68.37 | 50.63 | KES 3,461.57 |
| KES 73.53 | 305.43 | KES 22,458.27 |
Rules
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin. Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify. To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.