82%chance
81.5¢ per share
18.5¢ per share
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 80¢ | 34.3 | $27.44 |
| 79¢ | 591.68 | $467.43 |
| 78¢ | 1,078.75 | $841.43 |
| 77¢ | 5.18 | $3.99 |
| 76¢ | 248.12 | $188.57 |
| 74¢ | 10.81 | $8.00 |
| 73¢ | 21.82 | $15.93 |
| 64¢ | 80 | $51.20 |
| 57¢ | 6 | $3.42 |
| 56¢ | 8.92 | $5.00 |
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 83¢ | 312 | $258.96 |
| 84¢ | 822.57 | $690.96 |
| 85¢ | 50 | $42.50 |
| 88¢ | 141.25 | $124.30 |
| 89¢ | 383.62 | $341.42 |
| 90¢ | 376.08 | $338.47 |
| 91¢ | 10 | $9.10 |
| 93¢ | 317.25 | $295.04 |
| 94¢ | 250 | $235.00 |
| 95¢ | 220 | $209.00 |
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27. The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.