13%chance
12.5¢ per share
87.5¢ per share
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 11¢ | 511.09 | $56.22 |
| 10¢ | 155 | $15.50 |
| 9¢ | 225 | $20.25 |
| 7¢ | 133.54 | $9.35 |
| 6¢ | 93.3 | $5.60 |
| 5¢ | 100 | $5.00 |
| 4¢ | 125 | $5.00 |
| 1¢ | 5 | $0.05 |
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 14¢ | 200.9 | $28.13 |
| 15¢ | 331.84 | $49.78 |
| 20¢ | 49.01 | $9.80 |
| 21¢ | 58.32 | $12.25 |
| 22¢ | 30 | $6.60 |
| 23¢ | 499.16 | $114.81 |
| 24¢ | 350.09 | $84.02 |
| 25¢ | 413.88 | $103.47 |
| 27¢ | 40 | $10.80 |
| 28¢ | 241.11 | $67.51 |
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.25°C and below +2.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No". The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.