<1%chance
0.1¢ per share
100.0¢ per share
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| No bids | ||
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1¢ | 100 | $0.10 |
| 0.4¢ | 148.26 | $0.59 |
| 0.5¢ | 56.97 | $0.28 |
| 1.1¢ | 11.21 | $0.12 |
| 1.2¢ | 155 | $1.86 |
| 10.1¢ | 10 | $1.01 |
| 10.2¢ | 20.03 | $2.04 |
| 13.9¢ | 75 | $10.43 |
| 14¢ | 150 | $21.00 |
| 18.9¢ | 150 | $28.35 |
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No". The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.