All markets
Will Kash Patel be arrested before 2027?
2%chance
- Yes2.1%
Outcomes
- Yes2%
2.1¢ per share
- No98%
97.9¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 2.1¢Spread 1.1¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 1.6¢ | 100 | $1.60 |
| 1.5¢ | 100 | $1.50 |
| 0.9¢ | 177.7 | $1.60 |
| 0.3¢ | 240 | $0.72 |
| 0.2¢ | 500 | $1.00 |
| 0.1¢ | 3,889.89 | $3.89 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2.7¢ | 81.18 | $2.19 |
| 2.8¢ | 200 | $5.60 |
| 3¢ | 200 | $6.00 |
| 3.1¢ | 100 | $3.10 |
| 3.4¢ | 178 | $6.05 |
| 4.3¢ | 1,062.47 | $45.69 |
| 9¢ | 21.72 | $1.95 |
| 10¢ | 20 | $2.00 |
| 31.9¢ | 8 | $2.55 |
| 57.9¢ | 300 | $173.70 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.