All markets
Will John Kerry be arrested before 2027?
1%chance
- Yes1.4%
Outcomes
- Yes1%
1.4¢ per share
- No99%
98.7¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 1.4¢Spread 0.5¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1¢ | 82 | $0.90 |
| 1¢ | 40 | $0.40 |
| 0.9¢ | 178.68 | $1.61 |
| 0.8¢ | 40 | $0.32 |
| 0.7¢ | 160 | $1.12 |
| 0.3¢ | 240 | $0.72 |
| 0.2¢ | 400 | $0.80 |
| 0.1¢ | 4,974.23 | $4.97 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 1.6¢ | 66.31 | $1.06 |
| 1.7¢ | 209.7 | $3.56 |
| 1.9¢ | 219 | $4.16 |
| 2¢ | 20 | $0.40 |
| 2.3¢ | 300 | $6.90 |
| 2.4¢ | 20 | $0.48 |
| 2.6¢ | 400 | $10.40 |
| 3.3¢ | 124.71 | $4.12 |
| 4.4¢ | 2,092.05 | $92.05 |
| 9¢ | 14.61 | $1.31 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.