All markets
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?
3%chance
- Yes2.6%
Outcomes
- Yes3%
2.6¢ per share
- No97%
97.4¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 2.6¢Spread 1.4¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 1.9¢ | 40 | $0.76 |
| 1.8¢ | 100 | $1.80 |
| 1.6¢ | 113.7 | $1.82 |
| 1.4¢ | 5,076.29 | $71.07 |
| 1.3¢ | 1,868.43 | $24.29 |
| 1.2¢ | 220 | $2.64 |
| 0.9¢ | 1,740 | $15.66 |
| 0.6¢ | 1,761.06 | $10.57 |
| 0.4¢ | 2,700 | $10.80 |
| 0.3¢ | 4,322.63 | $12.97 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3¢ | 30 | $0.99 |
| 3.4¢ | 200 | $6.80 |
| 3.5¢ | 164.8 | $5.77 |
| 3.8¢ | 2,000 | $76.00 |
| 3.9¢ | 1,200 | $46.80 |
| 4¢ | 2,591.66 | $103.67 |
| 4.1¢ | 689 | $28.25 |
| 4.3¢ | 1,817.97 | $78.17 |
| 5.3¢ | 8,336.2 | $441.82 |
| 7¢ | 972.14 | $68.05 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.