All markets
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027?
5%chance
- Yes4.5%
Outcomes
- Yes5%
4.5¢ per share
- No96%
95.5¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 4.5¢Spread 0.6¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 4.2¢ | 74 | $3.11 |
| 4.1¢ | 249.84 | $10.24 |
| 4¢ | 238.99 | $9.56 |
| 3.9¢ | 50 | $1.95 |
| 3.8¢ | 50 | $1.90 |
| 3.5¢ | 165.7 | $5.80 |
| 3.4¢ | 54.3 | $1.85 |
| 3.2¢ | 432.56 | $13.84 |
| 3.1¢ | 242.56 | $7.52 |
| 3¢ | 94.88 | $2.85 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8¢ | 278.75 | $13.38 |
| 4.9¢ | 438.99 | $21.51 |
| 5¢ | 364.82 | $18.24 |
| 5.1¢ | 236 | $12.04 |
| 5.2¢ | 50 | $2.60 |
| 5.5¢ | 211.64 | $11.64 |
| 5.8¢ | 641.51 | $37.21 |
| 5.9¢ | 414.39 | $24.45 |
| 6¢ | 212.76 | $12.77 |
| 6.5¢ | 205 | $13.33 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.