All markets
Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027?
5%chance
- Yes4.5%
Outcomes
- Yes5%
4.5¢ per share
- No96%
95.5¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 4.5¢Spread 1¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 4¢ | 226 | $9.04 |
| 3¢ | 795.5 | $23.87 |
| 2¢ | 1,035.94 | $20.72 |
| 1¢ | 5,426.37 | $54.26 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 5¢ | 381.69 | $19.08 |
| 6¢ | 858.42 | $51.51 |
| 7¢ | 1,483.02 | $103.81 |
| 8¢ | 368.75 | $29.50 |
| 9¢ | 246.48 | $22.18 |
| 10¢ | 91.5 | $9.15 |
| 15¢ | 300 | $45.00 |
| 18¢ | 35 | $6.30 |
| 28¢ | 59.2 | $16.58 |
| 29¢ | 291.63 | $84.57 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.