All markets
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
2%chance
- Yes2.5%
Outcomes
- Yes2%
2.5¢ per share
- No98%
97.5¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 2.5¢Spread 0.1¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2.4¢ | 347.28 | $8.33 |
| 2.3¢ | 260.68 | $6.00 |
| 2.2¢ | 100 | $2.20 |
| 1.8¢ | 34.36 | $0.62 |
| 1.7¢ | 100 | $1.70 |
| 1.2¢ | 100 | $1.20 |
| 1¢ | 20 | $0.20 |
| 0.7¢ | 100 | $0.70 |
| 0.5¢ | 688 | $3.44 |
| 0.4¢ | 1,147.68 | $4.59 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5¢ | 2,902.1 | $72.55 |
| 2.7¢ | 540.8 | $14.60 |
| 3.6¢ | 40.14 | $1.45 |
| 3.7¢ | 223.62 | $8.27 |
| 4¢ | 20 | $0.80 |
| 5.9¢ | 19 | $1.12 |
| 6¢ | 130.75 | $7.85 |
| 6.1¢ | 16.3 | $0.99 |
| 6.2¢ | 113.2 | $7.02 |
| 9¢ | 5 | $0.45 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence. If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Adam Back was a member of that group will qualify. Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.