All markets
Will Juan Reyes Mejía González be arrested in 2026?
14%chance
- Yes13.5%
Outcomes
- Yes14%
13.5¢ per share
- No87%
86.5¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 13.5¢Spread 5¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 11¢ | 38.18 | $4.20 |
| 10¢ | 60 | $6.00 |
| 8¢ | 412.5 | $33.00 |
| 7¢ | 5.04 | $0.35 |
| 6¢ | 574.74 | $34.48 |
| 3¢ | 381.87 | $11.46 |
| 2¢ | 468.75 | $9.38 |
| 1¢ | 1,924.72 | $19.25 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 16¢ | 11.98 | $1.92 |
| 17¢ | 20.1 | $3.42 |
| 18¢ | 165.34 | $29.76 |
| 35¢ | 10.76 | $3.77 |
| 44¢ | 20 | $8.80 |
| 48¢ | 20 | $9.60 |
| 59¢ | 20 | $11.80 |
| 62¢ | 10 | $6.20 |
| 63¢ | 270 | $170.10 |
| 64¢ | 2,777.77 | $1,777.77 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.