All markets
Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?
12%chance
- Yes12.3%
Outcomes
- Yes12%
12.3¢ per share
- No88%
87.7¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 12.3¢Spread 5.2¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 9.7¢ | 85.5 | $8.29 |
| 9.4¢ | 20 | $1.88 |
| 7.3¢ | 370.09 | $27.02 |
| 7¢ | 13 | $0.91 |
| 6¢ | 548.26 | $32.90 |
| 4.3¢ | 10.13 | $0.44 |
| 4.2¢ | 107.87 | $4.53 |
| 4¢ | 275.54 | $11.02 |
| 3¢ | 416.67 | $12.50 |
| 2.1¢ | 7.16 | $0.15 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 14.9¢ | 92.57 | $13.79 |
| 15.7¢ | 50 | $7.85 |
| 22.1¢ | 19.98 | $4.42 |
| 31¢ | 10.14 | $3.14 |
| 32.4¢ | 65 | $21.06 |
| 58.6¢ | 40 | $23.44 |
| 58.7¢ | 20 | $11.74 |
| 59¢ | 20 | $11.80 |
| 63.9¢ | 10 | $6.39 |
| 64¢ | 2,777.77 | $1,777.77 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.