All markets
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?
4%chance
- Yes3.9%
Outcomes
- Yes4%
3.9¢ per share
- No96%
96.2¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 3.7¢Spread 3.2¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2.1¢ | 70 | $1.47 |
| 2¢ | 15 | $0.30 |
| 1.9¢ | 53 | $1.01 |
| 1.7¢ | 120 | $2.04 |
| 1.3¢ | 18.13 | $0.24 |
| 1.2¢ | 100 | $1.20 |
| 1.1¢ | 7.37 | $0.08 |
| 1¢ | 15 | $0.15 |
| 0.9¢ | 8.16 | $0.07 |
| 0.8¢ | 60 | $0.48 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 5.3¢ | 30 | $1.59 |
| 5.4¢ | 62.79 | $3.39 |
| 5.7¢ | 20 | $1.14 |
| 5.8¢ | 81 | $4.70 |
| 6.2¢ | 306.07 | $18.98 |
| 8.8¢ | 275 | $24.20 |
| 8.9¢ | 130 | $11.57 |
| 9.1¢ | 230 | $20.93 |
| 9.2¢ | 817.5 | $75.21 |
| 13.9¢ | 130 | $18.07 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".