All markets
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?
3%chance
- Yes2.9%
Outcomes
- Yes3%
3.0¢ per share
- No97%
97.0¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 2.9¢Spread 1.9¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2¢ | 15 | $0.30 |
| 1.9¢ | 53 | $1.01 |
| 1.1¢ | 40 | $0.44 |
| 0.7¢ | 52.88 | $0.37 |
| 0.6¢ | 62 | $0.37 |
| 0.5¢ | 29.92 | $0.15 |
| 0.4¢ | 274.63 | $1.10 |
| 0.3¢ | 224.42 | $0.67 |
| 0.2¢ | 206.33 | $0.41 |
| 0.1¢ | 150.74 | $0.15 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 3.9¢ | 6.8 | $0.27 |
| 4¢ | 339.74 | $13.59 |
| 5.9¢ | 20 | $1.18 |
| 6¢ | 178.31 | $10.70 |
| 9.9¢ | 20 | $1.98 |
| 10¢ | 98.8 | $9.88 |
| 10.9¢ | 20 | $2.18 |
| 11¢ | 137.66 | $15.14 |
| 14.6¢ | 25 | $3.65 |
| 26.8¢ | 20 | $5.36 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".