All markets
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?
4%chance
- Yes3.7%
Outcomes
- Yes4%
3.7¢ per share
- No96%
96.3¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 3.7¢Spread 2.2¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2.6¢ | 68.97 | $1.79 |
| 2.3¢ | 22 | $0.51 |
| 2.2¢ | 46 | $1.01 |
| 2.1¢ | 133 | $2.79 |
| 2¢ | 957 | $19.14 |
| 1.2¢ | 19.93 | $0.24 |
| 1.1¢ | 750 | $8.25 |
| 1¢ | 1,250 | $12.50 |
| 0.4¢ | 61.97 | $0.25 |
| 0.3¢ | 210.93 | $0.63 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8¢ | 5.31 | $0.25 |
| 4.9¢ | 52.79 | $2.59 |
| 5¢ | 24.91 | $1.25 |
| 7¢ | 60.01 | $4.20 |
| 11¢ | 12 | $1.32 |
| 24.8¢ | 16.48 | $4.09 |
| 56.1¢ | 20 | $11.22 |
| 59¢ | 5 | $2.95 |
| 64.9¢ | 140 | $90.86 |
| 65¢ | 20 | $13.00 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".