All markets
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
22%chance
- Yes21.5%
Outcomes
- Yes22%
21.5¢ per share
- No79%
78.5¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 21.5¢Spread 9¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 17¢ | 11.63 | $1.98 |
| 16¢ | 12.5 | $2.00 |
| 14¢ | 5 | $0.70 |
| 13¢ | 60 | $7.80 |
| 12¢ | 275.36 | $33.04 |
| 8¢ | 192 | $15.36 |
| 7¢ | 7 | $0.49 |
| 6¢ | 58.32 | $3.50 |
| 5¢ | 475.4 | $23.77 |
| 4¢ | 1,768 | $70.72 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 26¢ | 32.19 | $8.37 |
| 27¢ | 23.02 | $6.22 |
| 33¢ | 50 | $16.50 |
| 71¢ | 10 | $7.10 |
| 75¢ | 20 | $15.00 |
| 76¢ | 30 | $22.80 |
| 86¢ | 129 | $110.94 |
| 87¢ | 93 | $80.91 |
| 89¢ | 60 | $53.40 |
| 97¢ | 17.14 | $16.63 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".