Economy

108 events

Fed Decision in October?
- No change81%
- 25 bps increase19%
$35.0M Vol.monthly

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Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change22%

$3.2M Vol.monthly

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.7M Vol.2 months left

Fed Decision in January?

No change67%
25 bps increase31%

$418.3K Vol.monthly

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA81%
Apple15%

$8.1M Vol.monthly

September Inflation US - Annual

3.6%44%
3.7%37%

$235.7K Vol.monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)96%
1 (25 bps)2%

$54.1M Vol.

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change91%
25 bps increase11%

$576.1K Vol.annual

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA94%
Apple5%

$290.3K Vol.monthly

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%61%
5.5%33%

$972.1K Vol.weekly

September Inflation US - Monthly

0.6%53%
0.5%29%

$84.1K Vol.monthly

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 5.20%35%
Below 5.15%26%

$69.0K Vol.

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

80%chance

$656.8K Vol.57 days left

3rd Largest Company end of October?

Alphabet80%
Microsoft20%

$57.1K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike65%
Hike–Pause–Pause20%

$294.0K Vol.daily

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple89%
NVIDIA9%

$28.7K Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change81%
25 bps increase19%

$113.8K Vol.annual

Core CPI MoM - September 2026

0.2%51%
0.3%30%

$62.7K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change84%
25 bps increase15%

$172.3K Vol.annual

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change89%
Decrease11%

$77.9K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

<$397K41%
$407K - $417K19%

$18.7K Vol.monthly

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

3.0 - 3.5M28%
2.5 - 3.0M27%

$115.5K Vol.monthly

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

3.0-3.4%40%
3.5-3.9%32%

$62.4K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%16%
Below 4.6%6%

$353.8K Vol.

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.3% to 0.5%30%
0.0% to 0.2%27%

$35.5K Vol.annual

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting53%
June 2027 Meeting37%

$3.8M Vol.

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%85%
5.25%39%

$101.2K Vol.

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+57%
2.7-2.8M20%

$44.5K Vol.monthly

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change97%
25 bps increase3%

$200.0K Vol.annual

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause59%
Pause-Hike-Hike11%

$33.4K Vol.daily

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%65%
5.80%45%

$211.2K Vol.

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

25 bps decrease88%
No Change4%

$52.9K Vol.annual

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$37.8K Vol.monthly

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%47%
4.50-4.99%19%

$162.5K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.35%61%
5.32%57%

$25.9K Vol.weekly

Bank of Russia decision in December?

No change62%
25 bps decrease32%

$10.6K Vol.annual

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M69%
270M7%

$32.6K Vol.monthly

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

52%chance

$17.5K Vol.2 months left

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%71%
4.6-4.9%14%

$67.3K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

$407K - $411K31%
$403K - $407K19%

$18.2K Vol.monthly

Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?

770M>99%
780M98%

$3.3K Vol.

US recession by end of 2026?

8%chance

$2.3M Vol.3 months left

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.11%65%
5.17%49%

$15.6K Vol.

2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Apple68%
NVIDIA16%

$30.7K Vol.monthly

Core CPI YoY - September 2026

2.4%44%
2.5%35%

$48.7K Vol.monthly

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase92%
No change10%

$306.2K Vol.annual

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.18%68%
Below 5.15%52%

$13.6K Vol.weekly

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change74%
25 bps increase23%

$35.9K Vol.

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

November 3072%
October 3167%

$5.9K Vol.

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

Santander4%
RBC3%

$82.4K Vol.monthly

What will be in the UK Budget?

CGT increase44%
Fuel duty increase28%

$11.7K Vol.

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.90%54%
5.00%46%

$16.1K Vol.

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.55%77%
Below 5.52%47%

$13.7K Vol.

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%67%
2.5–3.0%16%

$54.3K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change55%
25 bps increase43%

$41.2K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change70%
25 bps increase26%

$9.7K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?

<$503K41%
$519K - $521K19%

$18.2K Vol.monthly

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

4.86%78%
4.89%70%

$10.6K Vol.

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$900B-$1.00T38%
$1.00-$1.10T32%

$11.2K Vol.monthly

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9%75%
2.0-2.4%20%

$57.6K Vol.

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8K Vol.2 months left

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

>5.0%77%
4.7-5.0%13%

$92.2K Vol.

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.2 to 0.3%47%
0.0 to 0.1%28%

$27.9K Vol.monthly

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

3.50% to 3.99%57%
4.00% to 4.49%16%

$84.5K Vol.

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.73%61%
Below 4.70%60%

$6.0K Vol.

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines43%
Anduril21%

$214.9K Vol.

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.73%45%
5.70%41%

$19.4K Vol.

India Annual Inflation 2026

4.50%+94%
<0.75%<1%

$101.9K Vol.

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

2.7% to 2.9%46%
3.0%+36%

$55.4K Vol.

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

No change78%
25 bps decrease20%

$53.9K Vol.annual

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.95%53%
Below 4.86%53%

$10.4K Vol.

Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?

2.5-3.0%27%
2.0-2.5%26%

$47.8K Vol.annual

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%46%
1.1 – 1.5%26%

$112.4K Vol.

What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on December 31?

$327K+22%
$313K - $318K19%

$14.8K Vol.monthly

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

↑ 7.50%72%
↓ 6.50%13%

$98.7K Vol.

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

54.0 to 54.927%
53.0 to 53.923%

$11.3K Vol.monthly

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

1.0-2.0%48%
0-1.0%45%

$57.7K Vol.monthly

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

0.8%–1.6%34%
0.0%–0.8%24%

$43.0K Vol.annual

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Alphabet61%
Microsoft27%

$69.8K Vol.monthly

JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026

7.4M+32%
7.2M to 7.3M28%

$14.0K Vol.monthly

September Inflation China - Annual

0.9% to 1.0%56%
1.1%+25%

$40.9K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.062M25%
$1.125M - $1.146M21%

$12.4K Vol.monthly

Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?

1.3%+46%
1.0-1.2%42%

$63.3K Vol.annual

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3114%
November 307%

$10.3K Vol.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase52%
No change43%

$93.5K Vol.annual

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October 2026

46.0 to 48.945%
43.0 to 45.942%

$26.4K Vol.monthly

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

9%chance

$121.9K Vol.2 months left

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4%78%
2.5-2.9%9%

$75.5K Vol.

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

42%chance

$2.1K Vol.2 months left

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%75%
↑ 4.5%17%

$1.9M Vol.

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

25 bps decrease56%
50+ bps decrease26%

$24.2K Vol.annual

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

83%chance

$2.2K Vol.8 months left

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3118%
November 306%

$23.7K Vol.

PPI YoY - September 2026

5.9%+30%
5.7%19%

$28.4K Vol.monthly

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?

2.5–2.9%35%
3.0–3.4%33%

$62.0K Vol.annual

How many jobs added in October?

100k+30%
50k to 75k17%

$21.1K Vol.monthly

Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026

0.8-1.1%56%
1.2-1.5%31%

$68.5K Vol.annual

$138.3K Vol.monthly

2026 World GDP Growth

3.1%30%
3.0%29%

$76.3K Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+91%
31M+85%

$33.3K Vol.monthly

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

43%chance

$4.0K Vol.18 days left

ISM Services PMI - October 2026

53.0 to 53.926%
55.0 to 55.921%

$13.8K Vol.monthly

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026? (Higher Brackets)

1600.00–1699.9940%
<1600.0038%

$22.4K Vol.monthly

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5%13%
Above 5%9%

$1.5M Vol.

Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?

7%chance

$92.1K Vol.2 months left