Economy

56 events

Fed Decision in October?
- No change81%
- 25 bps increase20%
$33.8M Vol.monthly

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Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change23%

$3.0M Vol.monthly

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA76%
Apple21%

$8.1M Vol.monthly

Fed Decision in January?

No change65%
25 bps increase33%

$346.0K Vol.monthly

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change91%
25 bps increase11%

$555.4K Vol.annual

September Inflation US - Annual

3.6%44%
3.7%38%

$211.4K Vol.monthly

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA91%
Apple8%

$268.0K Vol.monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)96%
1 (25 bps)2%

$54.1M Vol.

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change74%
25 bps increase25%

$108.4K Vol.annual

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike62%
Hike–Pause–Pause21%

$286.4K Vol.daily

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change74%
25 bps increase24%

$35.0K Vol.

3rd Largest Company end of October?

Alphabet84%
Microsoft16%

$49.9K Vol.monthly

Core CPI MoM - September 2026

0.2%51%
0.3%31%

$58.9K Vol.monthly

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M72%
270M9%

$30.9K Vol.monthly

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%56%
5.5%32%

$969.3K Vol.weekly

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M27%
3.0 - 3.5M24%

$113.3K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change84%
25 bps increase15%

$171.1K Vol.annual

US recession by end of 2026?

8%chance

$2.3M Vol.3 months left

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%64%
5.80%47%

$211.1K Vol.

September Inflation US - Monthly

0.6%49%
0.5%35%

$74.5K Vol.monthly

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+54%
2.7-2.8M18%

$41.8K Vol.monthly

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

3%chance

$11.3K Vol.2 months left

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause51%
Pause-Hike-Hike13%

$31.5K Vol.daily

Central Bank of Chile decision in October

No change93%
25 bps decrease5%

$10.2K Vol.monthly

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

3.50% to 3.99%61%
4.00% to 4.49%15%

$84.2K Vol.

Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?

770M>99%
780M98%

$2.9K Vol.

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%82%
5.25%39%

$101.1K Vol.

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%96%
5.0–6.0%3%

$931.2K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.32%64%
5.35%49%

$24.5K Vol.weekly

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change90%
Decrease11%

$74.4K Vol.annual

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

>5.0%76%
4.7-5.0%14%

$92.1K Vol.

Core CPI YoY - September 2026

2.4%46%
2.5%36%

$48.1K Vol.monthly

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting53%
June 2027 Meeting36%

$3.8M Vol.

US economic state at the end of 2026?

$102.5K Vol.

October Unemployment Rate

4.2%37%
4.1%29%

$6.5K Vol.monthly

Price of Dozen Eggs in September?

$2.20 to $2.3056%
$2.10 to $2.2030%

$32.9K Vol.monthly

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026

30.0-34.9%61%
25-29.9%35%

$79.9K Vol.monthly

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple93%
NVIDIA4%

$22.5K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.18%68%
Below 5.15%45%

$12.4K Vol.weekly

People's Bank of China rate change by December 31?

No Change89%
Decrease11%

$8.6K Vol.monthly

2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Apple71%
NVIDIA13%

$29.5K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change53%
25 bps increase47%

$40.4K Vol.annual

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.55%74%
Below 5.52%49%

$12.7K Vol.

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase89%
No change10%

$305.1K Vol.annual

Bank of Russia decision in December?

No change50%
25 bps decrease41%

$8.4K Vol.annual

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$35.5K Vol.monthly

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%73%
4.6-4.9%14%

$65.6K Vol.monthly

Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?

2.5-3.0%27%
2.0-2.5%24%

$47.3K Vol.annual

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.73%52%
5.70%44%

$18.7K Vol.

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

3.5–3.9%58%
3.0–3.4%21%

$138.3K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

75%chance

$27.2K Vol.2 months left

Bank of Korea decision in October?

No Change95%
25 bps hike6%

$38.3K Vol.annual

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+91%
31M+85%

$33.2K Vol.monthly

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

25 bps decrease56%
50+ bps decrease27%

$24.0K Vol.annual

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3113%
November 308%

$10.0K Vol.

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left